Global| Nov 16 2006NAHB Housing Market Index Improved Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) reported that the November Composite Housing Market Index rose to 33 from 31 in October and from 31 in September. While off its low, the index remained down by roughly one half from [...]
The National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) reported that the November Composite Housing Market Index rose to 33 from 31 in October and from 31 in September. While off its low, the index remained down by roughly one half from last year.
During the last twenty years there has been a 76% correlation between the y/y change in the Composite Index and the change in single family housing starts.
The improvement again was led a sharp gain in the sub-index covering prospective sales in the next six months (9.5% m/m, -29.2% y/y). The sub-index for current sales rose just slightly m/m (-50.7% y/y).
Traffic of prospective home buyers also rose moderately to the highest level since July
Improvement by region was mixed. The housing market indexes for the Northeast (-39.3% y/y) and the South (-41.2% y/y) improved m/m but in the Midwest the index fell (-56.8%) as it did out West (-58.0% y/y).
The NAHB index is a diffusion index based on a survey of builders. Readings above 50 signal that more builders view conditions good than poor.
Economic Freedom, Human Freedom, Political Freedom, a 1991 speech by the late Milton Friedman, is available here.
| Nat'l Association of Home Builders | November | October | Nov. '05 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Housing Market Index | 33 | 31 | 61 | 67 | 68 | 64 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
