Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Jan 19 2005

Mortgage Applications Rebound

Summary

Mortgage applications rebounded 16.2% last week following three weeks of decline according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Survey. Refi's led the gain with a 19.1% rise and so far this year are 2.4% higher than in December. [...]


Mortgage applications rebounded 16.2% last week following three weeks of decline according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Survey.

Refi's led the gain with a 19.1% rise and so far this year are 2.4% higher than in December.

Purchase applications also rose 14.0% w/w. Nevertheless, the level of purchase applications were 10.6% below the December average which fell 0.3% from November. During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.

The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage slipped to 5.89% versus an average 6.05% during 2004 and 5.95% in December. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also fell to 5.44% last week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site here.

MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) 01/14/05 01/07/05 Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Total Market Index 682.9 587.8 -25.5% 735.1 1,067.9 799.7
  Purchase 448.1 393.1 -10.7% 454.5 395.1 354.7
  Refinancing 2,048.6 1,720.5 -38.4% 2,366.8 4,981.8 3,388.0
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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