Global| Jan 11 2007MAPI Business Outlook Survey Fell Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The 4Q '06 Composite Business Index published by the Manufacturers' Alliance/MAPI fell for the third straight quarter, to 54 from 64 in 3Q '06. The figure was the lowest since early 2002. During the last ten years there has been a 69% [...]
The 4Q '06 Composite Business Index published by the Manufacturers' Alliance/MAPI fell for the third straight quarter, to 54 from 64 in 3Q '06. The figure was the lowest since early 2002.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the Composite Index Level and quarterly growth in US factory sector output.
The current orders index dropped sharply to 66, the lowest since 2002 but the 4Q export orders index rose and recouped declines in the prior two quarters. During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the export orders index and quarterly growth in real US exports.
The profit margins index fell sharply to 62 versus an average 65 last year, its lowest level since 2Q '05.Capital spending intentions for the coming year, however, improved. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the capital spending index a q/q growth in business investment.
The survey of 60 senior financial executives representing a broad range of manufacturing industries reflects the views on current & future business conditions. The business outlook index is a weighted sum of shipments, backlogs, inventories, and profit margin indexes.
For the latest US Business Outlook from the MAPI click here.
U.S. Economic Outlook - Remarks by Michael H. Moskow, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago are available here.
| Manufacturers' Alliance/MAPI Survey | 4Q '06 | 3Q '06 | 4Q '05 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Business Index | 54 | 64 | 74 | 66 | 70 | 76 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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