Global| Feb 22 2010Large EU Country Orders Go Back On The Rise…Mostly
Summary
Germany no longer seems to be locked in to the wining trajectory that leads the e-Zone. France and Italy each have stronger orders growth than Germany Yr/Yr. Among the four largest EU nations Germany alone is the one with declining [...]
Germany no longer seems to be locked in to the wining trajectory that leads the e-Zone. France and Italy each have stronger orders growth than Germany Yr/Yr. Among the four largest EU nations Germany alone is the one with declining orders growth over the most recent three months on order declines in December and in October.
The UK shook off a steep decline in orders in November; that drop unwound a huge spike in orders in October. UK data have become extremely volatile. December has brought another outsized gain in orders this time of 8.5%. Despite some major league see-sawing the UK orders series appears to be in the same sort of rebound as Germany Italy and France.
The clear message from the chart above is that despite some period-to-period volatility in orders an upswing is still in train. Orders are climbing up out of the hole they were dug into during the recession. In November the large three EMU countries each had Yr/Yr declines in orders but in December orders in Italy, France and Germany all are in the plus column again for Yr/Yr growth.
| Selected Euro-Area and UK Industrial Orders | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saar except m/m | Mo/Mo | Dec 09 |
Nov 09 |
Dec 09 |
Nov 09 |
Dec 09 |
Nov 09 |
||
| Countries: | Dec 09 |
Nov 09 |
Oct 09 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6mo | 6mo | 12mo | 12mo |
| Germany (MFG): | -1.8% | 3.2% | -2.1% | -3.4% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 23.7% | 4.2% | -2.0% |
| France(Ind): | 17.1% | 0.5% | -8.2% | 36.4% | -7.3% | 40.5% | 4.5% | 15.5% | -4.2% |
| Italy (Ind): | 4.7% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 38.5% | 47.6% | 18.5% | 15.4% | 5.3% | -3.5% |
| UK (Engineering Industy): | 8.5% | -15.6% | 14.1% | 19.1% | -18.1% | 7.1% | -9.9% | -16.2% | -3.8% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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