Global| Jul 19 2006June Housing Starts Fell More Than Expected
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Housing starts fell 5.3% last month to 1.850M units, a decline that outpaced Consensus expectations for a lesser drop to 1.90M starts. For 2Q starts averaged 1.878M, down 11.5% from 1Q and it was the lowest quarterly level since mid [...]
Housing starts fell 5.3% last month to 1.850M units, a decline that outpaced Consensus expectations for a lesser drop to 1.90M starts. For 2Q starts averaged 1.878M, down 11.5% from 1Q and it was the lowest quarterly level since mid 2003.
Total housing starts in June were 18.3% below the peak this past January.
Single-family starts fell 6.5% last month to 1.486M, a level which was 18.1% below the January peak. During 2Q single family starts fell 12.2% from the prior quarter.
Multi family starts rose a slight 0.3% in June but for 2Q fell 8.2%.
By region, single family housing starts were the weakest last month in the Northeast where starts plummeted by one third (-37.8% y/y) to the lowest level in ten years. In the South single family starts fell 5.5% (-11.2% y/y) and in the West single family starts fell 5.9% (-11.0% y/y). In the Midwest starts rose a modest 3.6% during June but were down 13.3% y/y.
Building permits fell for the fifth consecutive month and were down 16.9% from last year's peak.
Today's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is available here.
| Housing Starts (000s, AR) | June | May | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,850 | 1,953 | -11.0% | 2,073 | 1,950 | 1,854 |
| Single-family | 1,486 | 1,590 | -13.8% | 1,719 | 1,604 | 1,505 |
| Multi-family | 364 | 363 | 2.8% | 354 | 345 | 349 |
| Building Permits | 1,862 | 1,946 | -14.9% | 2,159 | 2,058 | 1,888 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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