Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Dec 09 2009

JOLTS: U.S. Job Openings and Hiring Falls

Summary

The labor market remains soft. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in its Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that job availability during October gave back half of the September increase with a 3.1% decline. Openings [...]


The labor market remains soft. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in its Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that job availability during October gave back half of the September increase with a 3.1% decline. Openings were off 26.1% from October of last year. The series dates back to December 2000.

The job openings rate held steady m/m at 1.9%. These rates were down from more than 3.0% in 2007. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings.

Factory sector job openings rose for the third consecutive month but they remained down 41.3% y/y. Construction sector job openings gave back all of their September increase and were down 27.8% y/y. Nevertheless, openings here were nearly double the series low reached in April. The level of professional & business services job openings gave back half of the September increase (-23.1% y/y) while education & health sector job openings (-17.6% y/y) also reversed half the prior month's gain. Openings in retail trade rose slightly m/m (-24.2% y/y) and remained up sharply from the April low while government sector job openings rose m/m from slightly from the series low (-23.4% y/y).

The hires rate dipped m/m to 3.0% and returned to the series record low. The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment. The actual number of hires also fell 2.3% m/m and was down 11.6% year-to-year. Factory sector hiring recently gave back most of its September increase and was off 13.4% y/y while construction sector hiring also dipped m/m (-10.0% y/y). Leisure & hospitality industry jobs fell 1.3% to a new series low (-16.0% y/y) and retail sector hiring (-15.5% y/y) remained quite weak. In the professional & business services industry, hires fell 2.1% (-10.0% y/y) after three months of increase. In the education & health services industries, past jobs figures were revised sharply and in October they fell moderately, down 5.9% y/y.

The job separations rate fell to a new series low of 3.2% with the actual number of separations off 14.4% year-to-year. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations as well as retirements. Layoffs and discharges alone dipped 0.3% (+0.5% y/y) during October  but are down 17.4% from the January peak.

The JOLTS survey dates only to December 2000 but has followed the movement in nonfarm payrolls, though the actual correlation between the two series is low.

A description of the Jolts survey and the latest release from the U.S. Department of Labor is available here . and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.  

JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor  Turnover Survey) October September August Oct. '08 2008 2007 2006
Job Openings, Total
  Rate (%) 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.4 2.3 3.1 3.3
  Total (000s) 2,506 2,586 2,423 3,390 3,224 4,382 4,606
Hires, Total
  Rate (%) 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 41.1 46.1 47.6
  Total (000s) 3,966 4,061 4,040 4,486 56,486 63,666 64,879

  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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