Global| Jun 18 2008Japan’s LEI - Unrevised but Still Downbeat
Summary
Japan’s LEI was unrevised in April but continues to fall at an accelerating pace. Over 12-mos the index fell at a 5.7% pace, over six-months the rate of decline is at a rate of 6.9% and over the recent three months ended in April the [...]
Japan’s LEI was unrevised in April but continues to fall at an
accelerating pace. Over 12-mos the index fell at a 5.7% pace, over
six-months the rate of decline is at a rate of 6.9% and over the recent
three months ended in April the index is falling at an 8.2% annual
rate. But compare the composite leading indicators for Japan with that
from the OECD. The OECD measure has rebounded and is continuing to show
an up-cycle. This is cropping up to be one of the larger divergences
between the OECD CLI and Japan’s LEI.
| Japan's LEI and its trends | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levels | Growth (saar) | ||||||
| Apr-08 | Mar-08 | Feb-08 | 3M0 | 6M0 | 12Mo | 24MO | |
| LEI | 92.8 | 90.8 | 93.1 | -8.2% | -6.9% | -5.7% | -10.6% |
| LEI: OECD | 106.6 | 105.5 | 105.5 | 5.0% | 4.7% | -1.5% | -1.5% |
| OECD LEI details | |||||||
| Share P | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -12.6% | -36.2% | -24.5% | -25.7% |
| Interest Spread (chngs) | -0.3 | -0.7 | -0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -1.0 |
| Loan/Deposit | #N/A | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 6.9% |
| Dwellings Started | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -10.8% | 83.7% | -7.2% | -9.6% |
| OT-MFG | #N/A | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% | -2.0% | -1.0% | -4.9% |
| Stocks/Delivery (M&M) | #N/A | #N/A | 1.0 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A |
| Exp>Imp | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -97.4% | -71.0% | 110.0% | -150.0% |
| SmallBiz | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A |
| Grey shaded rows are one month behind current; Small Biz lags by six months | |||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
