Global| Dec 15 2008Japan Tankan Survey Drops Sharply
Summary
Japan’s Tankan for 2008 Q4 shows dramatic weakening. The headline pace for large enterprises in manufacturing has dropped to -24 from -3 in 2008-Q4. Non MFG has turned negative to -9 in Q4 from +1 in Q3. The all industries index is at [...]
Japan’s Tankan for 2008 Q4 shows dramatic weakening. The
headline pace for large enterprises in manufacturing has dropped to -24
from -3 in 2008-Q4. Non MFG has turned negative to -9 in Q4 from +1 in
Q3. The all industries index is at -16 in 2008-Q4 down from flat in
2008-Q3. Of the main sectors, Construction. Real estate, Wholesaling,
Retailing, Transportation, Services for businesses, Personal services
and Restaurants and hotels all are on their weakest respective readings
since 2003-Q3 except Construction. That sector reading lies in the
bottom quarter of its range.
Even construction is weak as its average has been a reading of
-3.0 while its actual reading in 2008 Q4 is -10. Manufacturing’s
average score has been -13.5 and that is now at -24.0.
The manufacturing outlook has also deteriorated. The Q1
outlook if for a reading of -36 compared to an outlook for -4 for
2008-Q4. Similarly for Nonmanufacturing the outlook has slipped to -14
in 2009-Q1 from what was -1 for 2008-Q4.
The outlook and current assessments for small and medium-sized
firms is just as bad or worse. In Japan the large enterprise survey is
the bellwether.
| Tankan Results Large Enterprises | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Readings | Averages | PERCENTILES | |||||
| Q4-08 | Q3-08 | Q2-08 | Q1-08 | 1-Y Avg | Since Q3'03 | Since Q1'04 | |
| MFG | -24.0 | -3.0 | 5.0 | 11.0 | -13.5 | 16.3 | 0.0% |
| Nonmanufacturing | -9.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 12.0 | -4.0 | 13.8 | 0.0% |
| Total Industry | -16.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | -8.0 | 15.1 | 0.0% |
| Construction | -10.0 | -7.0 | -1.0 | -9.0 | -8.5 | -3.8 | 22.2% |
| Real Estate | -7.0 | 5.0 | 22.0 | 21.0 | -1.0 | 29.2 | 0.0% |
| Wholesale | -7.0 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 17.5 | 0.0% |
| Retail | -18.0 | -5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -11.5 | 4.5 | 0.0% |
| Transportation | -7.0 | 6.0 | 16.0 | 17.0 | -0.5 | 13.9 | 0.0% |
| Services for Business | -1.0 | 4.0 | 20.0 | 22.0 | 1.5 | 22.2 | 0.0% |
| Personal Services | -11.0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 13.0 | -2.5 | 9.6 | 0.0% |
| Restaurants & Hotels | -32.0 | -13.0 | -14.0 | -3.0 | -22.5 | 4.5 | 0.0% |
| Forecast | |||||||
| Q1-09 | Q4-08 | Q3-08 | Q2-08 | 1-Y Avg | Since Q3'03 | Since Q1'04 | |
| Manufacturing - Outlook | -36.0 | -4.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | -7.3 | 13.6 | 0.0% |
| Nonmanufacturing - Outlook | -14.0 | -1.0 | 8.0 | 13.0 | 1.5 | 13.2 | 0.0% |
| All Industry-Outlook | -25.0 | -2.0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | -2.8 | 13.3 | 0.0% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
More Economy in Brief
