Global| Apr 28 2009Japan Retail Sales Continue to Drop
Summary
The Year-over-year the drop in Japan’s retail sales is worsening. But overall seasonally adjusted sales while down by a sharp 1.1% m/m in March are not accelerating their drop over three months compared to six months. The 5.6% annual [...]
The Year-over-year the drop in Japan’s retail sales is
worsening. But overall seasonally adjusted sales while down by a sharp
1.1% m/m in March are not accelerating their drop over three months
compared to six months. The 5.6% annual rate of decline over three
months is less than the 7.6% pace of decline over six months but still
much greater than the 3.7% pace of decline over 12-months. There is not
much good news in those trends. In the just-completed quarter, sales
are still falling at a rapid 7% annual rate compared to Q4. With Japan
poised for its traditional Golden Week holiday, consumer spending is
again set to be tested. While the US and Europe have showed some
sporadic signs of improvement in data trends, there has been little in
the way of constructive data from Japan as of yet.
| Japan Retail Sales Trends | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar-09 | Feb-09 | Jan-09 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo | Yr-Ago | Q-to-Date | |
| Total SA | -1.1% | -0.2% | -0.1% | -5.6% | -7.6% | -3.7% | 3.2% | -7.0% |
| Not seasonally adjusted | ||||||||
| Total: Nominal | -0.4% | -1.2% | 0.9% | -3.1% | -6.6% | -3.9% | 4.2% | -6.7% |
| Motor Vehicles | -2.0% | -6.1% | 3.7% | -17.0% | -10.9% | -6.3% | 10.0% | -1.4% |
| Food& Beverage | 0.7% | -1.5% | -0.5% | -5.1% | -0.6% | 0.4% | 2.1% | -7.8% |
| Fabric apparel & access | -0.9% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 2.9% | -5.7% | -5.6% | -1.3% | -6.1% |
| Rest of Retail | -0.7% | -0.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | -9.3% | -5.6% | 5.0% | -7.2% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
