Global| Aug 18 2011Japan LEI Shows Some Life
Summary
Japan’s LEI is back to where it was before disaster(s) struck. Its growth rate is up boosted, still, by exports relative to imports and by the Japanese stock market, housing starts and overtime in manufacturing as Japan’s factories [...]
Japan’s LEI is back to where it was before disaster(s) struck. Its growth rate is up boosted, still, by
exports relative to imports and by the Japanese stock market, housing starts and overtime in manufacturing
as Japan’s factories try to make up for lost time.
Japan’s own domestic LEI shows a much fuller recovery in Japan than does the LEI leading indicator series for Japan. While Japan’s domestic indicator is pointing higher this month (June) the OECD indicator is beginning to form a rounded top.
Japan is still a country that depends a lot on its ability to export. Japan’s population growth has stagnated and begun to contract. Japan derives its growth from exporting. And in more recent data for July we see that Japan’s exports are losing steam in a trouble global growth environment.
Putting it all together we have some very weak data globally with Japan showing in some ways the most spunk. We can expect Japan to be somewhat underpinned by demand as it has rebounding to do to recover from its series of disasters. But that rebound may turn out to be more domestic in nature and lodged in the building trades as we see the uphill climb exports are going to have as global growth slips, and looks to be severely challenged.
| Japan's LEI And Its Trends | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levels | Growth (SAAR) | ||||||
| Jun-11 | May-11 | Apr-11 | 3Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | 24Mo | |
| LEI Japan | 103.2 | 99.4 | 96.0 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 30.0% |
| Other Leading Measures | |||||||
| Share Prices | 100.3 | 100.3 | 100.3 | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.2% |
| Int Spread (chngs) | 100.2 | 100.2 | 100.3 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Loan/Deposit | 99.3 | 99.3 | 99.4 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.6 | -1.9 |
| Dwellings Started | 100.8 | 100.8 | 100.7 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 3.2 |
| OT-MFG | 100.1 | 99.9 | 99.7 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | -3.1 |
| Stocks/Deliv (M&M) | 100.3 | 100.5 | 100.7 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.4 | 4.2 |
| Exp>Imp | 100.8 | 100.8 | 100.7 | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | -0.9% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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