Global| Mar 29 2011Italy's Economy Still Hitting Bumps And Potholes
Summary
Italy's Business sentiment index is up in March rising to 103.8 from 103.1 in February. The index sits in the 71st percentile of its range and at the 62nd percentile of its ranked queue. While it is reaching a post-recession high its [...]
Italy's Business sentiment index is up in March rising to 103.8 from 103.1 in February. The index sits in the 71st
percentile of its range and at the 62nd percentile of its ranked queue. While it is reaching a post-recession high its pace
of increase has been tapering off since early 2010.
The overall index had topped out at 112.3 in March of 2007 ahead of the recession. It remains well below its past cycle peak. Total and foreign demand stand in the 60th and 61st percentiles of their respective ranges or below the 45th percentile by ranking percentiles. In short Italy's gauges are showing that there is improvement afoot but still there is a long way to go.
The production metric at a raw net reading of -14 stands in the 57th percentile of tis range and at the 35th percentile of its ranked queue; in other words the production index is higher than this about 65% of the time.
Italy's economy is more significantly linked to Libya than any other in the Zone. Libyan oil has been important to Italy. Italy's PM had cultivated a personal relationship with Libyan strong man Gaddafi. Now that closeness and economic integration will probably hinder Italy's attempt to keep its economy strong. On top of that PM Berlusconi is fighting for his own political life. On balance there is not much to recommend being upbeat on Italy's prospects. It will probably continue to recover along with the rest of Europe will also probably be a laggard instead of a leader.
| Italy ISAE Business Sentiment | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar-11 | Feb-11 | Jan-11 | Dec-10 | Percentile | Mean | Rank% | |
| Biz Confidence | 103.8 | 103.1 | 103.5 | 103 | 71.6 | 101 | 62.7% |
| TOTAL INDUSTRY | |||||||
| Order Books & Demand | |||||||
| Total | -18 | -18 | -19 | -18 | 60.3 | -16 | 41.1% |
| Foreign | -19 | -12 | -17 | -19 | 61.5 | -18 | 44.9% |
| Inventories | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 45.8 | 3 | 29.1% |
| Production | -14 | -15 | -15 | -17 | 57.1 | -12 | 35.4% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
More Economy in Brief
