Global| Oct 28 2009Italy's Business Sentiment Bounces Back Highest Reading Since Sept 2008
Summary
Last month Italian consumers felt great and Italian businesses felt worse. In October, Italian consumers felt decidedly worse while business sentiment advanced nicely to a 13 month high. Still the overall biz indicator stands only in [...]
Last month Italian consumers felt great and Italian businesses
felt worse. In October, Italian consumers felt decidedly worse while
business sentiment advanced nicely to a 13 month high.
Still the overall biz indicator stands only in the 37th
percentile of its long term range that is well below the mid point and
not near enough to a normal, let alone recovery, reading yet. Orders
score a -51 raw reading a figure that stand in the bottom 20th
percentile of its range. Domestic orders are relatively better off than
foreign orders as domestic orders stand in their 25th range percentile
while foreign orders stand in their 17th percentile.
In Italy investment goods stand in lower range percentiles than do consumer goods. Italy’s revival seems to be more on the back of the consumer that Germany’s which seems to be relatively more on the aback of foreign demand. Since the consumer is lagging and troubled that is something to keep a close eye on. Foreign orders to Italian exporters have been showing signs of weakening. For that to happen as Italian domestic demand form consumers fades is an ominous sign.
| Italy ISAE Business Sentiment | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since Oct 1996 | ||||||
| Oct-09 | Sep-09 | Aug-09 | Jul-09 | Percentile | Rank | |
| Biz Confidence | 77.1 | 74.3 | 74.7 | 72.5 | 37.7 | 136 |
| TOTAL INDUSTRY | ||||||
| Order books & Demand | ||||||
| Total | -51 | -52 | -51 | -58 | 20.0 | 138 |
| Domestic | -49 | -49 | -48 | -53 | 25.9 | 139 |
| Foreign | -55 | -56 | -51 | -61 | 17.5 | 140 |
| Inventories | -2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 37.5 | 122 |
| Production | -49 | -47 | -47 | -52 | 15.5 | 141 |
| INTERMEDIATE | ||||||
| Order books & Demand | ||||||
| Total | -57 | -55 | -54 | -60 | 21.6 | 140 |
| Domestic | -57 | -54 | -53 | -60 | 23.2 | 140 |
| Foreign | -56 | -59 | -57 | -63 | 24.5 | 138 |
| Inventories | -7 | -1 | -6 | 0 | 27.6 | 126 |
| Production | -52 | -51 | -55 | -58 | 21.0 | 139 |
| INVESTMENT GOODS | ||||||
| Order books & Demand | ||||||
| Total | -62 | -61 | -63 | -69 | 10.5 | 139 |
| Domestic | -54 | -55 | -56 | -63 | 21.0 | 137 |
| Foreign | -66 | -61 | -59 | -72 | 6.3 | 142 |
| Inventories | -1 | -1 | 4 | 8 | 43.2 | 98 |
| Production | -61 | -58 | -56 | -67 | 5.9 | 143 |
| CONSUMER GOODS | ||||||
| Order books & Demand | ||||||
| Total | -36 | -38 | -37 | -37 | 26.1 | 138 |
| Domestic | -36 | -39 | -35 | -37 | 29.0 | 139 |
| Foreign | -41 | -42 | -36 | -39 | 22.9 | 140 |
| Inventories | -1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 38.5 | 98 |
| Production | -37 | -33 | -31 | -35 | 15.8 | 143 |
| Total number of months: | 148 | |||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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