Global| Jun 26 2008Italy: Retail Sales Follows Consumer Confidence Lower
Summary
Italy’s retail sales and consumer confidence are in sync or perhaps I should say ‘in sink’, since sinking it what they are both doing. Italy’s retail sales in real terms are falling at a 5.1% annual rate in 2008-Q1, that is one month [...]
Italy’s retail sales and consumer confidence are in sync or
perhaps I should say ‘in sink’, since sinking it what they are both
doing.
Italy’s retail sales in real terms are falling at a 5.1%
annual rate in 2008-Q1, that is one month into the new quarter. In
April real sales fell by 0.2% while nominal sales were flat. Yr/Yr real
retail sales are off by 0.9%.
In general consumer data in the Zone have been weak and the
industrial data have been relatively stronger. Normally with such weak
consumer data we would be staring straight at recession. In this
business cycle it is still not clear that recession is either
inevitable or avoidable. Among the large EMU countries Italy has been
the weakest. Conditions in the Zone remain touch and go with problems
that span construction, a strong euro exchange rate, financial turmoil
and the dual and opposite depressing and inflation-making impact of
high oil prices.
| Italy Retail Sales Growth Rates | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mo/mo % | At annual rates | |||||||
| Nominal | Apr-08 | Mar-08 | Feb-08 | 3-MO | 6-MO | 12-MO | YrAGo | Q-2-Date |
| Retail Trade | 0.0% | -0.6% | 0.3% | -1.5% | -1.1% | -0.4% | 0.6% | -2.0% |
| Food Beverages & Tobacco | 0.0% | -0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | -0.8% |
| Clothing & Furniture | -4.1% | -2.8% | 1.4% | -20.2% | -11.8% | -4.9% | 0.0% | -28.6% |
| Total Real Retail | -0.2% | -1.1% | 0.2% | -4.3% | -5.0% | -3.6% | -0.9% | -5.1% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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