Global| Dec 30 2008Italian Business Confidence Drops Like Stone
Summary
Italian business confidence has been weakening but has now hit extreme proportions. We are day by day getting confirmation that the economic signals are every bit as bad as the worst of our expectations for recession. We are looking [...]
Italian business confidence has been weakening but has now hit extreme proportions. We are day by day getting confirmation that the economic signals are every bit as bad as the worst of our expectations for recession. We are looking at recession forces much more like 1973-75 and 1981-82 than like in 1990 or 2001.
For Italian business, the readings across categories are the worst we have seen since 1996 except for inventories which are not the highest seen but still high readings and clearly into the undesirable range.
Domestic and foreign readings are showing extreme weakness as the year draws to a close.
| Italy ISAE Business Sentiment | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since Oct 1996 | ||||||
| Dec-08 | Nov-08 | Oct-08 | Sep-08 | Percentile | Rank | |
| Biz Confidence | 66.6 | 71.6 | 76.4 | 81 | 0.0 | 147 |
| TOTAL INDUSTRY | ||||||
| Order books & Demand | ||||||
| Total | -54 | -45 | -38 | -28 | 0.0 | 147 |
| Domestic | -58 | -47 | -39 | -31 | 0.0 | 147 |
| Foreign | -54 | -44 | -33 | -28 | 0.0 | 147 |
| Inventories | 9 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 83.3 | 14 |
| Production | -46 | -37 | -29 | -20 | 0.0 | 147 |
| INTERMEDIATE | ||||||
| Order books & Demand | ||||||
| Total | -68 | -52 | -42 | -31 | 0.0 | 147 |
| Domestic | -69 | -53 | -40 | -33 | 0.0 | 147 |
| Foreign | -67 | -50 | -38 | -32 | 0.0 | 147 |
| Inventories | 7 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 75.9 | 19 |
| Production | -58 | -43 | -29 | -22 | 0.0 | 147 |
| INVESTMENT GOODS | ||||||
| Order books & Demand | ||||||
| Total | -62 | -52 | -39 | -18 | 0.0 | 147 |
| Domestic | -64 | -56 | -44 | -32 | 0.0 | 147 |
| Foreign | -56 | -45 | -27 | -21 | 0.0 | 147 |
| Inventories | 9 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 68.4 | 27 |
| Production | -50 | -41 | -28 | -12 | 0.0 | 147 |
| CONSUMER GOODS | ||||||
| Order books & Demand | ||||||
| Total | -36 | -32 | -33 | -27 | 0.0 | 147 |
| Domestic | -39 | -32 | -34 | -29 | 0.0 | 147 |
| Foreign | -42 | -36 | -32 | -28 | 0.0 | 147 |
| Inventories | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 80.8 | 14 |
| Production | -28 | -27 | -29 | -22 | 2.5 | 146 |
| Total number of months: 147 | ||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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