Global| Apr 21 2005Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fell Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims dropped a sharp 36,000 last week to 296,000. The prior week's 9,000 decline was little revised and it marked the third drop in as many weeks, to the lowest level since late 2000. Consensus [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims dropped a sharp 36,000 last week to 296,000. The prior week's 9,000 decline was little revised and it marked the third drop in as many weeks, to the lowest level since late 2000. Consensus expectations had been for 326,000 claims.
The figure covered the survey period for April nonfarm payrolls and was down 33,000 (10.0%) from the March period. The size of the drop may have been magnified by the early timing of Easter this year.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 330,250 (-5.4% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 17,000 following a deepened 31,000 decline the prior week.
The insured unemployment rate remained at 2.1%.
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| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 04/16/05 | 04/09/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 296 | 332 | -16.9% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,638 | -12.3% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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