Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070201c.jpg" width="353">
A 20,000 drop in initial unemployment insurance claims last week to 307.000 reversed half of the upwardly revised increase the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 77% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 304,750 (6.6% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance jumped 71,000 (1.1% y/y).
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.9%, about where it&#39;s been since February.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">01/27/07</th>
<th scope="col">01/20/07</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>307</td>
<td>327</td>
<td>8.1%</td>
<td>313</td>
<td>332</td>
<td>343</td>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,484</td>
<td>-3.2%</td>
<td>2,459</td>
<td>2,662</td>
<td>2,924</td>
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A 20,000 drop in initial unemployment insurance claims last week to 307.000 reversed half of the upwardly revised increase the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims. During the last ten years there has been a [...]

Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Back Down

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Mortgage applications eased 0.5% (+21.6% y/y) in the week ending August 22 after falling 1.4% in the prior week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for purchase loans rose 2.2% (24.3% y/y) last week, following a 0.1% gain in the prior week. Applications to refinance a home loan fell 3.5% (+18.6% y/y) last week, following a 3.1% decline in the week of August 15.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan was unchanged at 6.86% in the week ending August 22 for the third straight week. It remained down from a high of 7.28% in the second week of January. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 6.22% in the latest week from 6.13% in the week of August 15. Conversely, the rate on 30-year Jumbo loans eased to 6.80% last week from 6.82% one week earlier. The rate on a 5-year ARM fell to 6.19% in the week of August 22 after rising to 6.24% in the prior week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan fell to 45.3% of total applications in the week ending August 22 after easing to 46.1% in the prior week. The share hit a low of 34.6% in the fourth week of May. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity edged lower to 8.40% in the latest week after falling to 8.60% in the week of August 15.

The average size of a mortgage loan fell 1.2% (+2.9% y/y) to $383,000 in the week of August 22, following a 2.7% decline in the prior week. The average size of a purchase loan rose 1.0% (1.5% y/y) to $433,400 in the latest week after rising 0.5% in the week ending August 15. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage fell 5.2% (+4.2% y/y) to $322,200 last week, after falling 7.3% to $339,800 in the prior week. It was increased from a low of $277,900 in the last week of May.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Purchase applications increase while loan refinancing eases.
- Fixed-interest rate on 30-year loan holds at four-month low.
- Average loan size declines again.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Edge Lower in Latest Week as Interest Rates Steady

Robert Brusca

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The GfK consumer climate indicator for Germany slipped in September to -23.6 from -21.7 in August. The slippage brings the index to its weakest level since April 2025 and in fact it's the weakest reading since May 2024 with only two-monthly exceptions.

The components for the GfK index are up to date through August. The economic index in August fell to -7.4, its weakest reading since December 2022. The decline in August was both sharp and deep.  Income expectations backed-off; after a reading of 15.2 in July, the index fell to 4.1 in August and was last weaker in March 2025. The propensity to buy index weakened again for the second month in a row to -10.1 in August from -9.2 in July; it's the weakest reading since February 2025.

**Percentile standings**
The percentile standing for the climate index and its components show climate is still very weak at a 9.7 percentile standing among data back to mid-2002. Economic expectations have a 23.7 percentile standing, the propensity to buy has a 28.8 percentile standing, while income expectations have a 38.8 percentile standing. These count percentiles or queue percentiles however you like to think of them, are all quite weak. The median in terms of this sort of gauge occurs at the 50th percentile reading, so all of these readings are well below their historic medians and data back to mid-2002.

**Consumer confidence – selected other Europe**
Other European confidence measures are up to date through August in France where the INSEE confidence measure slipped to 87 from 88.3 while in the United Kingdom the confidence measure improved to -17 in August from -19 in July. Italy's confidence reading is up to date only through July, and on that timeline, it showed a one-month improvement to 97.2, up from June’s 96.1. Italian confidence has the strongest standing at a 76.8 percentile standing, the U.K. has a 40.3 percentile standing, while France has a 19.8 percentile standing. There's a good deal of variation in how consumers perceive current circumstances. Based on these standings, Germany has the lowest assessment in the its lower 10 percentile, while Italy sees a top 25 percentile standing, the U.K. sees an assessment that's about 10 percentile points below its median, while France is at its 20th percentile closer to the German metric in standing. It's a substantial variation especially since three of these countries are in the European Monetary Union.

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On balance, consumers are concerned about global economic conditions. The tariff situation is in flux and beginning to settle into a hardened pattern. The Russia-Ukraine war is undergoing attempts to stop it, but neither participant seems willing to accept the conditions that the other requires for either a ceasefire or cessation of hostilities. Russia is increasingly looking as if it is beleaguered and under pressure as the U.S. seems to be edging closer to providing more support to Ukraine. Conditions in the Middle East remained as entangled and hostile as ever. Globally inflation continues to hover slightly above central banks’ targets in most places although it does not show much sign of drifting higher or lower as economic conditions continue to be weak. The Federal Reserve appears to be flirting more with the prospects of rate cuts, as the president mounts efforts to try to exert his influence or even outright control over the central bank. This is something that is going to bear some close watching.

Germany

German Climate Stabilizes But Eco-expectations Plunge

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The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence declined 1.3% (-7.8% y/y) to 97.4 in August after increasing 3.7%, revised from 2.1%, in July and falling an unrevised 3.3% in June. An August reading of 96.5 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The index remained 13.7% below its November peak.

The Expectations Index declined 1.6% (-13.3% y/y) this month after rising 8.7% in July, revised from 6.4%, and falling 5.0% in June. The Present Situation index fell 1.2% (-2.5% y/y) after easing 0.2% in July, revised from down 1.1% and falling 1.8% in June.

The percentage of respondents assessing business conditions as “good” rose to 22.0% in August after holding steady at 20.5% in July. The index reached its highest level since October. The percentage assessing conditions as “bad” edged higher to 14.2% after falling to 13.6% in July. The appraisal of labor market conditions eased as 29.7% described “jobs plentiful” versus 29.9% in July. Jobs were viewed as “hard to get” by 20.0% of respondents this month, up from 18.9% in July. This measure has risen from 11.0% in January 2024. The labor market differential calculated by Haver Analytics (the percentage of consumers who think jobs are plentiful minus the percentage who believe that jobs are currently hard to get) fell to 9.7% compared to 11.0% in July and 12.2% in June. This measure remained below a high of 47.1% in March 2022. This series has a 60% correlation with the unemployment rate over the last ten years.

Expectations for business conditions improved this month as an increased 19.5% of respondents expect conditions to improve over the next six months, after 19.0% did so in July, while 21.9% expect them to worsen, after falling to 22.7% in July. On employment, 17.9% expect the number of jobs to increase over the next six months versus 18.0% in July. The percentage expecting the number of jobs to decline in the next six months rose to 26.8% after falling to 25.1% in July. A lessened 18.3% of respondents expect income to increase in six months, down from 18.7% in July. That remained off a high of 20.7% in November and compares to 12.6% who expect income to decrease, up from 11.8% in July.

The expected rate of price inflation over the next twelve months rose to 6.2% in August after falling to 5.7% in July. These remain up from a low of 5.0% in November. Interest rates are expected to rise this year by an increased 54.0% of respondents, and this remained up from a 45.5% November 2024 low. The percentage of respondents expecting equity prices to increase over the next twelve months fell to 47.4%, but remained up from a low of 37.6% in April and the most since January, while the percentage expecting a decline in stock prices rose to 30.3% after declining to 28.1% in July.

The percentage of respondents planning to buy a home held steady at 5.7% this month after falling from 6.1% in June. Plans to purchase an automobile rose to 12.0% this month, up from a low of 10.6% in April.

The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver’s **CBDB** database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in **USECON**, and market expectations are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Monthly decline is slight, level remains up sharply from April low.
- Expectations and present situation readings decline.
- Inflation expectations rise after falling for two months.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Weakens in August; Inflation Expectations Rise

Sandy Batten

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Durable goods orders fell 2.8% m/m (+3.3% y/y) in July on top of a slightly downwardly revised 9.4% monthly decline in June (previous -9.3% m/m). A 4.0% m/m decline had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Once again, plummeting nondefense aircraft orders were the key factor behind the overall decline in July. Excluding nondefense aircraft orders, the remaining orders rose 0.2% m/m in July after a 0.3% m/m decline in June.

Orders excluding transportation increased by a solid 1.1% m/m (+3.8% y/y) in July following a 0.3% monthly gain in June. The July monthly increase matched the September 2024 gain as the largest in more than two years. Orders for nondefense aircraft plunged 32.7% m/m in July, on top of a 52.7% monthly decline in June. Apart from the plunge in aircraft orders, orders in other major groups posted solid increases. Orders for motor vehicles increased 0.3%, their third consecutive monthly gain. Orders for primary metals jumped 1.5% m/m, the largest monthly gain since April 2024. Fabricated metals orders rose 0.7% m/m after a 0.1% monthly decline in June. Machinery orders soared 1.8% m/m, the largest monthly increase since January. Orders for computers and electronic equipment increased 0.6% m/m. Orders for electrical equipment and appliances jumped 2.0% m/m, the largest increase since last December.

The capital spending data in this report augured a solid beginning for Q3 business spending on equipment. Shipments of core capital goods (nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft) are a reliable coincident indicator of business spending on equipment in the national accounts. They increased 0.7% m/m in July, the largest monthly gain since April 2023, and are up more than 4% annualized in July from the Q2 average. Moreover, core capital goods orders rebounded in July, jumping 1.1% m/m after a 0.6% monthly decline in June.

Total manufacturing shipments increased 0.8% m/m (+1.8% y/y) in July following a 0.6% monthly increase in June. Shipments of durable goods rose a solid 1.4% m/m (+3.6% y/y), the largest monthly gain since May 2023. Excluding shipments of transportation goods, remaining shipments increased 1.0% m/m in July, the largest monthly increase since January 2023. Gains were widespread across major sectors with each one reporting an increase in July. Transportation shipments rose 2.3% m/m, led by a 15.5% monthly jump in shipments of nondefense aircraft and parts. Shipments of computers rose 4.5% m/m, their first monthly gain in three months. Shipments of nondurable goods edged up 0.2% m/m (-0.1% y/y), their third consecutive monthly increase.

Unfilled durable goods orders were unchanged in July from June (+7.0% y/y). Inventories of all manufactured goods increased 0.3% m/m in July (+1.4% y/y), the largest monthly gain since last December. Inventories of durable goods rose 0.3% m/m (+1.8% y/y), their fifth consecutive monthly increase. Motor vehicle inventories jumped 0.8% m/m, their largest monthly increase since October 2023. Aircraft inventories slipped 0.2% m/m, their third consecutive monthly decline. Inventories of nondurable goods increased 0.2% m/m in July (+0.8% y/y), the same monthly gain as in June.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Durable goods orders fell 2.8% m/m in July on top of a 9.4% monthly drop in June.
- Once again, weak nondefense aircraft orders were the key factor; nondefense aircraft orders plunged 33% m/m in July on top of a 53% m/m decline in June.
- In contrast, orders excluding transportation rose a solid 1.1% m/m in July, their largest monthly gain since September 2024.
- Core capital goods orders rebounded, and shipments posted a solid gain.

U.S. Advance Durable Goods Orders Dragged Down Again by Aircraft in July