Global| Jan 19 2005Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Down
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
With a 48,000 w/w decline to 319,000 last week, initial claims for unemployment insurance reversed all of the gains during the prior two weeks and fell to the lowest level in a month. Consensus expectations had been for 345,000 [...]
With a 48,000 w/w decline to 319,000 last week, initial claims for unemployment insurance reversed all of the gains during the prior two weeks and fell to the lowest level in a month. Consensus expectations had been for 345,000 claims.
The latest figure is for the survey period for January nonfarm payrolls and it was 12,000 (3.6%) below the December period.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 341,000 (-4.1% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 82% correlation between the level of initial claims and the y/y change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 47,000 and reversed just some of the huge 209,000 drop the week prior.
The insured rate of unemployment was stable at 2.1%.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 01/15/05 | 01/08/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 319 | 367 | -10.6% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,694 | -15.4% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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