Global| Apr 06 2006Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Below Expectations
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped for the third consecutive period last week. The 5,000 person decline to 299,000 compared to Consensus expectations for 305,000 claims. It followed a 8,000 fall the prior week which was [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped for the third consecutive period last week. The 5,000 person decline to 299,000 compared to Consensus expectations for 305,000 claims. It followed a 8,000 fall the prior week which was slightly less than initially estimated.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial jobless insurance claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 308,500 (-9.9% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell a sharp 22,000 during the latest week following a revised decline of 1,000 the prior period, initially reported as an increase.
The insured rate of unemployment was stable at 1.9% for the seventh week.
The highest insured unemployment rates during the week ending March 18 were in Alaska (5.1%), Michigan (4.5%), Wisconsin (3.5%), Puerto Rico (3.4%), Pennsylvania (3.3%), Rhode Island (3.3%), New Jersey (3.1%), Vermont (3.1%), Massachusetts (3.0%), Connecticut (2.8%), and Oregon (2.8%).
Look Who's Working Now from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 04/01/06 | 03/25/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 299 | 304 | -13.6% | 332 | 343 | 402 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,440 | -9.0% | 2,663 | 2,924 | 3,532 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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