Global| Feb 23 2006Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Back Down
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims for dropped 20,000 to 278,000 last week. The decline reversed all of the prior week's increase which was slightly revised. Consensus expectations had been for 298,000 claims. The latest figure [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims for dropped 20,000 to 278,000 last week. The decline reversed all of the prior week's increase which was slightly revised. Consensus expectations had been for 298,000 claims.
The latest figure covers the survey period for February nonfarm payrolls and claims were up 6,000 (2.2%) from the January period.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial jobless insurance claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 281,750 (-8.8% y/y).
Continuing unemployment insurance claims rose 41,000 and reversed nearly half of the prior week's revised 98,000 decline which was much deeper than initially estimated.
The insured rate of unemployment was stable at 1.9% for the third of the last four weeks.
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| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 02/18/06 | 02/11/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 278 | 298 | -10.0% | 332 | 343 | 402 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,495 | -5.4% | 2,663 | 2,924 | 3,532 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
