Global| Mar 17 2006Industrial Production Up As Expected
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Overall industrial output surged an expected 0.7% during February. The rise, however, was entirely due to a 7.9% rebound in utility output as winter temperatures returned to normal. Utility output had fallen 11.5% during the record [...]
Overall industrial output surged an expected 0.7% during February. The rise, however, was entirely due to a 7.9% rebound in utility output as winter temperatures returned to normal. Utility output had fallen 11.5% during the record warm January.
Factory sector production was unchanged following the upwardly revised 0.8% January increase and m/m declines in output were widespread amongst industries.
Motor vehicles & parts fell 0.8% (-2.0% y/y) after a 2.4% spurt in January. Excluding motor vehicles, factory output inched up 0.1% (4.8% y/y). That increase very much reflected a 1.2% (19.0% y/y) jump in output of computer & electronic components. Excluding both autos and high tech, factory output was unchanged (+3.6% y/y) during February.
Output of primary metals slipped 0.1% (+4.2% y/y) last month and the 0.5% (+4.6% y/y) decline in machinery output was the second in a row. Electrical equipment & appliance output dropped 1.7% (+7.3% y/y) but furniture & related products output rose 1.3% (-1.6% y/y).
The 0.2% decline (+1.5% y/y) in nondurables output reflected a 0.5% (+2.4% y/y) fall in apparel output and a 1.8% (-4.2% y/y) drop in petroleum & coal production.
Total capacity utilization rose to 81.2% although factory sector utilization reversed a bit of the prior month's jump and fell to 80.4% versus an average 78.9% during 2005.
Greenspan's Unconventional View of the Long-Run Inflation/Output Trade-off from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
| Production & Capacity | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Industrial Production | 0.7% | -0.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 0.6% |
| Manufacturing | 0.0% | 0.8% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 0.5% |
| Consumer Goods | 0.8% | -0.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Business Equipment | 0.1% | 1.2% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 0.0% |
| Capacity Utilization | 81.2% | 80.8% | 80.0% (2/05) | 80.1% | 78.6% | 75.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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