Global| Sep 12 2003Industrial Production Gains in Malaysia, India, but Sags in France
Summary
Industrial production reports from three widely diverse countries highlight recent differences between industrial and emerging market countries. July production increased in both India and Malaysia, with India extending a firm trend [...]
Industrial production reports from three widely diverse countries highlight recent differences between industrial and emerging market countries. July production increased in both India and Malaysia, with India extending a firm trend that has built since the spring of 2002. Malaysia's growth has been erratic, but generally resilient.
By contrast, France is experiencing a lag in industrial output as a favorable month-on-month rise in June was not sustained into July. The year-on-year results continue to show marked declines, negating a recovery that looked to be starting last winter. The weakest segments of French industry are consumer appliances and electronics, capital goods and several intermediate products.
The erratic pattern in Malaysia may be attributable to its concentration in a relatively narrow industrial segment. Rubber and plastics products dominate the cycles there, with plastics recently showing rapid growth and very wide swings; i.e., its index level in July was 508.9, compared with the total index of 202.7 (1993=100). In India, however, the dispersion of output is broader among the collection of industries; the recent gains have involved non-cotton textiles, wood and paper products, rubber and plastics, basic metals, and even machinery and transportation equipment. Growth there has been modestly lower overall than in Malaysia, but far more stable; in particular, production growth slowed in India during the 2001 recession, but unlike Malaysia, it did not share in the outright declines evident in many other countries. Further, both of these emerging economies bounced back during 2002, while there has been virtually no lasting recovery in France; industrial production there, at 115.4 in July (1995+100), remains well below its August 2001 peak of 119.9.
| Industrial Production in Selected Countries (% Changes) | July 2003 (M/M) | June 2003 (M/M) | Year/Year | Dec/Dec
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
| India* | 1.1 | 1.7 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaysia* | 0.3 | -3.8 | 4.6 | 8.2 | -9.5 | 13.8 | |
| France | -0.3 | 1.0 | -2.5 | 0.0 | -3.3 | -0.3 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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