Global| Apr 23 2010IFO Follows Zew Lead And Pops
Summary
IFO surges: Germany’s IFO indicators are rising very sharply in April. The biz climate index lies 6.5% above its average; the Biz expectations index lies some 8.2% above its average mark as well. Biz expectations a positioned in the [...]
IFO surges: Germany’s IFO indicators are rising very sharply in April. The biz climate index lies 6.5% above its average; the Biz expectations index lies some 8.2% above its average mark as well. Biz expectations a positioned in the 94.5th percentile of their range, an extremely high standing, while current conditions are only at the 51.2 percentile’ just above the mid-point.
Sectors are strong: Services, retailing, and MFG sectors all are advancing with retailing making a strong move in the past month after having languished badly. The MFG sector is driving higher at a consistent and vibrant pace.
Report aligns with strength elsewhere despite irregularities in e-Zone - The IFO report reinforces the strong readings earlier by the Zew survey of financial experts. It is a survey for April and is very up-to-date. e-Zone orders though March were released today and were also quite solid. The UK, however, reported a somewhat disappointing Q2 GDP gain. Greece threw in the towel and asked for aid. Obviously the EU/EMU is a melting pot of differing economic circumstances.
Strength seems to dominate worries: For now the good news is that the German economy is firing on all cylinders. The MFG sector continues to be strong and the retailing sector has started to show some strong gains at long last. The Markit indices on services and MFG were not just up in April, but were up strongly. On the back of that strong report from Markit we can conclude that the growth prospects for Europe are looking up despite the irregularities and challenges it faces.
| IFO Survey: Germany | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percent: Yr/Yr | INDEX NUMBERS | ||||||||
| Apr 10 |
Mar 10 |
Feb 10 |
Jan 10 |
Dec 09 |
CURRENT | Mar 10 |
Curr/Avg | Percentile | |
| Biz Climate | 21.5% | 19.6% | 15.2% | 15.5% | 14.8% | 101.6 | 98.2 | 106.5% | 72.8% |
| Current Situation | 19.4% | 14.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 99.3 | 94.5 | 104.6% | 51.2% |
| Biz Expectations | 23.8% | 24.8% | 24.4% | 26.8% | 28.9% | 104.0 | 102.0 | 108.2% | 94.5% |
| Average & Range Since Jul-92 | |||||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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