Global| Sep 17 2009Housing Starts Show Turns Across Regions
Summary
Yr/Yr regional housing markets all are still declining, of course, but the pace of the drop is diminishing across each of the main regions. The turn is clear but to keep it in gear will require more growth. With the first time home [...]
Yr/Yr regional housing markets all are still declining, of
course, but the pace of the drop is diminishing across each of the main
regions. The turn is clear but to keep it in gear will require more
growth. With the first time home buyer incentives coming off, home
purchases will find a greater challenge to hold the uptrend. It is a
good time to hold our breath and to wait and see how much of this turn
remains in place. Hopefully with the incentives off, a stronger economy
will provide the incentive for a lasting rebound in housing starts.
The table shows that the strength of the housing rebound is in
the single family sector where these purchase incentives play strongly.
For single family units, current strength is building momentum and
permits are steadily strengthening as well, despite the date with the
expiration for incentives.
The 2-4 unit sector is falling at an accelerated pace. Permits
are showing some lift nonetheless. Multifamily starts are still very
weak and despite that permits are improving.
Still the story of housing this month is that it was buoyed by
gains in the multifamily sector even though that sector has weak
trends. Single family starts fell sharply in the month. The small 2-4
unit sector also fell. This month growth was propped up by the sector
that has showed the least promise. The homebuilder survey released on
Sept 16th showed a one –point rise in that index. For the time being
housing retains its upward momentum, however slight.
| Housing Starts/Permits By Unit Size | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analytical Comparisons (Pct. Changes-Not Compounded) | ||||||||
| Aug.2009 | ||||||||
| Total | One Unit | 2-4 Units | 5 or more | |||||
| In 000's of Units | Starts | Permits | Starts | Permits | Starts | Permits | Starts | Permits |
| This Month:Saar | 598 | 579 | 479 | 462 | 4 | 19 | 115 | 98 |
| Jul.2009 | 589 | 564 | 494 | 463 | 10 | 18 | 85 | 83 |
| Jun.2009 | 590 | 570 | 478 | 433 | 11 | 23 | 101 | 114 |
| 3-month avg. | 592 | 571 | 484 | 453 | 8 | 20 | 100 | 98 |
| 1-month % chg. | 1.5% | 2.7% | -3.0% | -0.2% | -60.0% | 5.6% | 35.3% | 18.1% |
| 3-month % chg | 8.5% | 11.8% | 17.1% | 13.8% | -55.6% | 5.6% | -13.5% | 4.3% |
| 6-month % chg | 4.2% | 5.3% | 34.2% | 21.3% | -69.2% | 11.8% | -43.6% | -35.5% |
| yr/yr % chg. | -29.6% | -32.4% | -21.7% | -15.7% | -73.3% | -44.1% | -48.2% | -64.4% |
| Drop from Max | -73.7% | -74.4% | -73.7% | -74.3% | -95.2% | -82.1% | -73.6% | -81.6% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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