Global| Dec 19 2006Housing Starts Recover A Bit
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
November housing starts recovered less than half of the previous month's little revised decline with a 6.7% increase. The gain to 1.588M was slightly better than Consensus expectations for a rise to 1.54M starts. The year-to-date [...]
November housing starts recovered less than half of the previous month's little revised decline with a 6.7% increase. The gain to 1.588M was slightly better than Consensus expectations for a rise to 1.54M starts.
The year-to-date average for starts of 1.588M was 11.7% below the first eleven months of 2005.
Single-family starts in November rose 8.1% to 1.281M, recovering less than half of the October decline which was to the lowest level since July 2000. The year-to-date average level of single family starts was 12.6% below 2005.
Multi-family starts gained back just 1.3% of the 8.5% October drop and were down 4.5% during this year's first eleven months.
By region, single family housing starts in the South posted a 14.1% (-22.1% y/y) increase but that was only about half of the sharp October decline. Single family starts in the Northeast again were up (-13.6% y/y) but the gains during the last two months still have not recovered the precipitous 16.7% decline during September. Starts in the Midwest rose 1.5% (-37.6% y/y) and starts out West nudged up 1.4% (-38.5% y/y).
Building permits fell 3.0% after a little revised 5.2% decline during October. This tenth monthly decline this year was to the lowest level since 1997. Permits to start single family homes fell 3.1% (-33.3% y/y) for the second consecutive month to the lowest since 1997.
What Do Financial Asset Prices Say About the Housing Market? from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System can be found here.
| Housing Starts (000s, AR) | November | October | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,588 | 1,488 | -25.5% | 2,073 | 1,950 | 1,854 |
| Single-family | 1,281 | 1,185 | -28.6% | 1,719 | 1,604 | 1,505 |
| Multi-family | 303 | 303 | -8.6% | 354 | 345 | 349 |
| Building Permits | 1,506 | 1,553 | -31.3% | 2,159 | 2,058 | 1,888 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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