Global| Nov 17 2006Housing Starts Plumb Six Year Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
In October, housing starts more than retraced the downwardly revised 4.9% September gain and fell 14.6% to the lowest level since July 2000. The latest result fell well short of Consensus expectations for 1.68M starts. At 1.486M [...]
In October, housing starts more than retraced the downwardly revised 4.9% September gain and fell 14.6% to the lowest level since July 2000. The latest result fell well short of Consensus expectations for 1.68M starts.
At 1.486M units, the October figure pulled the year-to-date average to 1.863 starts and 10.2% below the first ten months of 2005.
Single-family starts in October fell 15.9% to 1.177M, also the lowest level since July 2000. The year-to-date average level of single family starts fell 11.5% from 2005. Multi family starts in addition were down by 9.1% m/m.
By region, single family housing starts were weakest down South and fell 24.8% (-32.4% y/y). Starts also fell 9.1% (-32.9% y/y) out West, were 7.3% (-33.1% y/y) lower in the Midwest but in the Northeast single family starts rose 10.9% (-22.2% y/y).
Building permits fell 6.3% after a revised 5.2% September drop. The ninth monthly decline this year was to the lowest level since 1997. Permits to start single family homes fell 3.8% (-31.7% y/y), the lowest since 2000.
What Do Financial Asset Prices Say About the Housing Market? from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System can be found here.
| Housing Starts (000s, AR) | October | September | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,486 | 1,740 | -27.4% | 2,073 | 1,950 | 1,854 |
| Single-family | 1,177 | 1,400 | -31.8% | 1,719 | 1,604 | 1,505 |
| Multi-family | 309 | 340 | -3.4% | 354 | 345 | 349 |
| Building Permits | 1,535 | 1,638 | -28.0% | 2,159 | 2,058 | 1,888 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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