Global| May 27 2015Germany's Consumer Climate Continues to Improve
Summary
German consumer climate will advance to 10.2 in in June after logging 10.1 in May. The estimate of climate continues to snake higher in Germany even though its pace has been damped in recent months. The climate reading is at the top [...]
German consumer climate will advance to 10.2 in in June after logging 10.1 in May. The estimate of climate continues to snake higher in Germany even though its pace has been damped in recent months.
The climate reading is at the top of its range. And all components are strong, at least by their queue standings and in most cases by both the queue measure (Count %) and the percent of all time range measure (% range). Among the GfK components, the economic index is faring the worst with a queue standing in its 84st percentile and a position of its historic high-low range that is only in its 69th percentile.
France continues to lag. Its confidence measure is only in its 55th queue percentile, barely above its median value (which occurs at the 50% mark of the queue standing). Italy is faring better than that, but still with a very pedestrian reading. Italian confidence sits in its 72nd queue percentile, a moderately positive reading. The U.K. is experiencing strong consumer conditions with its confidence measure higher only 2% of the time.
Germany continues to lead the EMU region with a strong economy and high consumer confidence. Even so, the advance of German confidence has slowed in recent months as German economic data have prevaricated. The rest of the EMU still seems to be making progress, but huge gaps in the quality of economic conditions remain among EMU members. And of course, conditions are on tenterhooks over the pending resolution of the circumstance of Greece. That continues to hang over all of the EMU.
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
