Global| Jul 29 2011German Retail Sales turn Volatile
Summary
Retail sales (ex-autos) in Germany are gyrating, showing sharp fluctuations in the last two months. While retail sales soared in June vehicle registrations tanked. When retail sales fell in May vehicle registrations fell. There is no [...]
Retail sales (ex-autos) in Germany are gyrating, showing sharp fluctuations in the last two months. While retail
sales soared in June vehicle registrations tanked. When retail sales fell in May vehicle registrations fell.
There is no consistency.
There seems to be no signal in what retail sales are doing but instead a great deal of chaos. In France Household spending on manufactured goods rose. In the UK nominal and real retail sales recovered slightly from a sharp drop in May. But in Spain the steady drumbeat of sales contraction continues.
The European economies are being hammered by adverse expectations stemming from ongoing concerns about debt levels in a changing mix of European nations that are embroiled in it. Overnight Spain has been warned by Moody’s that it is vulnerable to a downgrade. Italy’s bonds are feeling pressure again.
Against this background, having some spending revival in Germany is good news. But having it on the heels of a big drop blunts the message. Still, German retail sales are up by 4.2% Yr/Yr , 3.5% in real terms. And that is something. The question is whether the spurt in June holds up in July.
| German Real and Nominal Retail Sales | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal | Jun 11 |
May 11 |
Apr 11 |
3Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | YrAgo | QTR SAAR |
| Retaill Ex auto | 6.1% | -2.6% | 0.6% | 16.8% | 9.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 30.0% |
| Car Registrations (Units) | -15.9% | 8.8% | -4.1% | -40.6% | -12.7% | -2.0% | -33.4% | 0.0% |
| Real | Jun 11 |
May 11 |
Apr 11 |
3Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | 4.1% | SAAR |
| Retail Ex auto | 6.3% | -2.5% | 0.4% | 17.6% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 31.9% |
| Other Early Reporters | ||||||||
| UK Nominal | 0.3% | -1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% | -1.0% |
| UK real | 0.7% | -1.4% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | -1.1% |
| Spain RetailXAuto | -2.5% | -2.2% | 4.2% | -2.4% | -3.9% | -3.9% | 2.1% | -14.6% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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