Global| May 28 2009German Retail Sales Lose Some Weakness
Summary
Retail sales are falling on a Yr/Yr basis but, in recent months, spending has been higher; over three months spending (ex-autos) is actually rising. As we saw in the first quarter German GDP report, consumers have been mildly affected [...]
Retail sales are falling on a Yr/Yr basis but, in recent
months, spending has been higher; over three months spending (ex-autos)
is actually rising. As we saw in the first quarter German GDP report,
consumers have been mildly affected by the German downturn but the real
weakness has been in the industrial measures such as business
investment, exports plus in housing. Find that retail sales are holding
up is a good sign that the German recession is not spreading and that
its social welfare support system is holding together the ability of
consumers to participate in the economy.
German consumption figures are somewhat encouraging. Still the
German consumer is not likely to be an engine of growth. Consumption is
a core part of GDP that is stabilizing and that is an important
contribution. The industrial weakness is still present and remains a
threat, But that depends on demand elsewhere since the threatening
weakness is to German investment goods output and exports. Exports
remain weak.
| German Real and Nominal Retail Sales | QTR | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal | Apr-09 | Mar-09 | Feb-09 | 3-MO | 6-MO | 12-MO | YrAgo | Saar |
| Retail Ex auto | 0.9% | -0.6% | 0.2% | 2.0% | -2.7% | -0.4% | -1.6% | 3.5% |
| Real | ||||||||
| Retail Ex auto | 0.5% | -0.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% | -1.5% | -0.3% | -4.5% | 1.5% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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