Global| Jun 09 2009German IP Still Dropping Sharply
Summary
German industrial production fell by a sharp 1.9% m/m in April. The April drop follows a small gain of 0.3% in March. The pace of decline in IP is slowing down in the recent three-month period as its negative growth rate (saar) is [...]
German industrial production fell by a sharp 1.9% m/m in
April. The April drop follows a small gain of 0.3% in March. The pace
of decline in IP is slowing down in the recent three-month period as
its negative growth rate (saar) is -18.1% compared to -32.3% over six
months. The 3-mo pace represents a slower drop than for Yr/Yr output as
well.
Capital goods output, the backbone of German industry,
continues to be very weak. Although capital goods output rose by a
strong 3.7% in March and that looked good at the time, the gain is now
sandwiched between declines of 5.2% m/m in February and of 6.4% m/m in
April. With the April figures in hand the March bounce looks like an
anomaly. Still, the slide in capital goods output slowed its pace of
decline in three months compared to six months returning to roughly to
its Yr/Yr pace. Intermediate goods output is where most of the progress
seems to be made. Consumer goods output is still decelerating.
German orders trends do not look as good as we had hoped.
While German orders are showing some better signs, and although output
itself rose in May, the declines are back in April and the sense of
progress is largely absent from this report.
| Total German IP | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAAR except m/m | Apr-09 | Mar-09 | Feb-09 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo | Quarter-to-Date |
| IP total | -1.9% | 0.3% | -3.4% | -18.1% | -32.3% | -21.6% | -15.5% |
| Consumer Goods | 0.5% | -1.0% | -3.7% | -15.8% | -11.6% | -6.4% | -8.4% |
| Capital Goods | -6.4% | 3.7% | -5.2% | -28.4% | -44.1% | -29.7% | -30.3% |
| Intermediate Goods | -1.0% | -1.7% | -1.3% | -14.8% | -38.1% | -25.8% | -14.4% |
| Memo | |||||||
| Construction | 0.5% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 39.1% | 13.9% | 6.6% | 35.1% |
| MFG IP | -2.9% | 0.8% | -3.5% | -20.5% | -36.8% | -24.2% | -19.4% |
| MFG Orders | 0.0% | 3.7% | -3.1% | 2.0% | -34.7% | -33.2% | 8.6% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
More Economy in Brief
