Global| Jan 12 2004German Industrial Production Rises in November: Export Demand Not Consumer Demand is the Catalyst
Summary
German industrial production rose 1.33% in November after a revised 2.8% rise in October.(Unrevised figure was 2.4%). This is the first time two successive month to month increases were recorded since early 2002. In spite of the [...]
German industrial production rose 1.33% in November after a revised 2.8% rise in October.(Unrevised figure was 2.4%). This is the first time two successive month to month increases were recorded since early 2002.
In spite of the rising Euro, it appears that export demand is fueling the rise in production rather than domestic demand. Reflecting the rises in actual exports and new orders for exports, capital goods production was up 4.03% in November and 5.42% above November, 2002. In contrast, production of consumer goods fell 0.88% in November and was 2.98% below November 2002. Retail sales have shown no consistently positive trend over the past two years and preliminary estimates for December sales are discouraging.
| Nov 03 | Oct 03 | Nov 02 | M/M % |
Y/Y % |
2002 | 2001 | 2000 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production 1995=100l | 114.6 | 113.1 | 113.4 | 1.33 | 1.06 | 111.8 | 1113.3 | 113.4 |
| Capital Goods | 141.9 | 136.4 | 134.6 | 4.03 | 5.42 | 131.1 | 134.5 | 130.8 |
| Consumer Goods | 100.8 | 101.7 | 103.9 | -0.88 | -2.98 | 103.6 | 105.3 | 105.6 |
| New Orders 2000=100 | 101.8 | 101.2 | 100.4 | 0.59 | 1.39 | 98.3 | 98.3 | 100.0 |
| Domestic | 97.6 | 97.2 | 95.5 | 0.41 | 2.20 | 94.6 | 97.6 | 100.0 |
| Export | 107.0 | 106.2 | 106.5 | 0.75 | 0.47 | 102.8 | 99.1 | 100.0 |
| Exports Bil. Euros (Moving Average) | 56.42 | 54.19 | 55.89 | 4.12 | 0.95 | 54.52 | 53.42 | 49.71 |
| Retail Sales 2000=100 | 100.2 | 101.3 | 100.1 | -1.09 | -0.79 | 101.3 | 102.1 | 100.0 |
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