Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070206a.jpg" width="353">
Unleaded gasoline prices at the pump rose slightly last week to an average $2.19 per gallon after two weeks unchanged at $2.17.
Colder temperatures have given lift to crude oil prices which recently have hovered just under $60.00 per barrel versus an average $55.76 for WTI crude during January.
The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is available <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html">here</a>.
Expected Inflation Near and Far from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/20070201/cover.pdf"> here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">Weekly Energy Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">02/05/07</th>
<th scope="col">01/29/07</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
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<td class="firstcol">US Retail Gasoline Price, Regular</td>
<td>$2.19</td>
<td>$2.17</td>
<td>-6.4%</td>
<td>$2.57</td>
<td>$2.27</td>
<td>$1.85</td>
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Unleaded gasoline prices at the pump rose slightly last week to an average $2.19 per gallon after two weeks unchanged at $2.17. Colder temperatures have given lift to crude oil prices which recently have hovered just under $60.00 per [...]

Gasoline Prices Rose Slightly

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Real GDP grew 3.3% (SAAR) during the second quarter of 2025, revised from a 3.0% gain reported initially. The increase followed an unrevised 0.5% decline in Q1. A 3.1% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Growth during the last four quarters of 2.1% compared to 2.0% y/y in Q1, and remained below its most recent high of 3.2% in Q4 2023.

After-tax corporate profits without IVA & CCA adjustment increased 1.4% (7.0% y/y) last quarter after easing 0.8% in Q1. Before-tax earnings with IVA & CCA rose 1.7% (4.3% y/y) after falling 2.3% in Q1. Financial sector earnings rose 1.4% (15.3% y/y) after rising 2.3% in Q1. Nonfinancial corporate profits rose 2.2% (2.5% y/y) after falling 2.5% in Q1. Earnings from abroad eased 0.7% (-0.4% y/y) following a 7.3% Q1 decline.

Foreign trade balance improvement added 4.95 percentage points to growth last quarter after subtracting 4.61 percentage points in Q1. Imports fell 29.8% (+1.3% y/y) after surging 38.0% in Q1. Exports declined 1.3% (+2.0% y/y) after improving 0.4% in Q1. Inventories subtracted 3.29 percentage points from growth after adding 2.59 percentage point to Q1 growth.

Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew 1.6% (2.4% y/y), revised from 1.1%, in Q2 after rising 1.5% in Q1. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.6% (2.4% y/y), revised from 1.4%, following a 0.5% gain. Durable goods spending rose 2.6% (4.6% y/y) after falling 3.7% in Q1. Motor vehicle purchases strengthened 11.7% (6.7% y/y) after declining 11.2% in Q1. Spending on home furnishings & appliances weakened 2.1% (+3.5% y/y) following a 1.5% rise. Recreational goods & vehicle outlays fell 3.5% (+4.3% y/y) last quarter after a 0.4% Q1 gain.

Nondurable goods outlays in constant dollars rose 2.3% (3.0% y/y) following 2.1% growth in Q1. Apparel spending increased 5.4% (4.8% y/y) following a 7.0% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 0.3% (1.5% y/y) after a 1.0% increase. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases weakened 1.4% (+0.9% y/y) after gaining 3.6% in Q1.

Real spending on services increased 1.2% (1.9% y/y) after a 0.6% gain. Outlays on housing & utilities eased 0.4% (+1.1% y/y) after rising 2.9% in Q1. Health care expenditures rose 4.2% (4.8% y/y) after a 3.1% increase. Transportation outlays declined 2.9% (-0.6% y/y) after a 1.4% rise, while recreation spending rose 3.6% (0.7% y/y) following a 5.1% decline. Restaurant & hotel expenditures increased 5.1% (1.9% y/y) after falling 1.8%. Financial services expenditures rose 1.9% (2.3% y/y) following a 0.1% Q1 increase.

Business fixed investment in constant dollars increased 5.7% last quarter (4.2% y/y), revised from 1.9%, following a 10.3% surge in Q1. Expenditures on structures declined 8.9% (-3.4% y/y), after falling 2.4% in Q1. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment increased 7.4% (7.7% y/y), revised from 4.8%, after surging 23.7% in Q1. Outlays on information processing equipment rose 10.1% (20.1% y/y), revised from 5.5%, after soaring 72.8% during Q1. Industrial equipment investment rose 6.7% (4.0% y/y) after a 4.7% rise. Transportation equipment investment surged 20.4% (6.8% y/y) after a 6.9% gain. Intellectual property product spending rose 12.8% last quarter (5.2% y/y) following a 6.0% rise.

Residential structures investment in real terms declined a little-revised 4.7% (-1.3% y/y), the fourth decline in the last five quarters.

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Government spending eased 0.2%, revised from up 0.5% in Q2 (+1.8% y/y) after a 0.6% decline. Federal government expenditures declined 4.7% (+0.7% y/y) after falling 4.6% in Q1. National defense expenditures increased 1.4% (3.0% y/y) after declining 7.1% in Q1. State & local government spending rose 2.6% (2.5% y/y) following a 2.0% rise.

The GDP chain price index rose an unrevised and expected 2.0% last quarter (2.5% y/y) after increasing 3.8% in Q1. The PCE chain price index increased 2.0% (2.4% y/y) following a 3.7% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 2.5% (2.7% y/y) after increasing 3.5% in Q1. The business fixed investment price index edged 0.5% lower (+1.1% y/y) after a 0.4% rise. The residential price index rose 1.1% (2.6% y/y) after a 4.1% rise while the government price index increased 3.3% (3.1% y/y) following a 4.6% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Business investment strengthens & consumer spending firms.
- U.S. business earnings reverse Q1 decline.
- Increase in price index is unrevised, remaining roughly half of Q1’s gain.

U.S. GDP Q2’25 Growth Revised Up; Profits Improve

Sandy Batten

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The Kansas City Fed manufacturing composite index was unchanged at 1 in August from July. This was the second consecutive month that the index has been positive, indicating the manufacturing in the KC Fed district continue to inch up in August. Prior to the positive reading in July, the index had been negative for 22 consecutive months. The index’s most recent high was 31 reached in both April 2021 and October 2021. The durable manufacturing sector was mostly flat in August, while nondurable manufacturing activity declined slightly driven by printing activities and paper and chemical manufacturing. 

The August survey was open for a six-day period from August 20-25, 2025 and included 103 responses from plants in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, northern New Mexico, and western Missouri.

The ISM-adjusted index calculated by Haver Analytics rose to 51.1 (NSA) in August from 50.2 in July. This was the fifth reading above the critical 50 level that separates expansion from contraction in the past six months, a further indication of expanding manufacturing activity.

For the major component indexes, the production index was 0 in August, but this was up from -3 in July. The new orders index rose to 5 in August, its highest reading since May 2022, from 2 in July. The shipments index increased to 6 in August from 3 in July. The employment index was 0 in August, but this was up from -11 in July. Also, the average workweek index rebounded to 3 in August after having been in negative territory for the previous four months. Supplier delivery times were unchanged at 7 in August. The elevation of this index since April may indicate some incipient supply-chain disruptions from higher tariffs. In contrast, raw materials inventories fell to -7 in August from 8 in July.

On the inflation front, the prices paid for raw materials index remained elevated but fell to 43 in August from 47 in July and a local high of 51 in June. Forty-four percent of respondents reported an increase in raw materials prices in August, down from 48% in July and 53% in June, while only 4% reported a decrease, down from 5% in July and 6% in June. The prices received for finished products index increased to 21 in August from 18 in July. This index has fluctuated in a range between 17 and 21 for the past four months.

Expectations for future activity remained positive, with the composite index rising to 11 from 8, as firms anticipate an improvement in production and new orders. While expectations have been trending up over the past several months, they remain depressed relative to the recent high reading of 17 last December. Capital expenditures expectations remained in negative territory in August for the second consecutive month but edged up to -3 from -4 in July.

The series dates back to July 2001. The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Data for the Kansas City Fed Survey can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

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- Index remained (though barely) in positive territory for the second consecutive month, indicating that manufacturing activity was inching up.
- Prior to last month, the index had been negative for 22 consecutive months.
- Positive readings across most key components.

FRB Kansas City Manufacturing Index Unchanged in August

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The Pending Home Sales Index weakened 0.4% in July (+0.7% y/y) to 71.7 after falling an unrevised 0.8% in June and rising an unrevised 1.8% in May, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The Index remained 42.7% below its most recent peak of 125.1 in October 2021. The index is a forward-looking measure of home sales based on contract signings.

The fall in pending home sales occurred as the average rate on a 30-year mortgage rose to 6.72% in July after holding steady m/m at 6.82% in June. These rates remained well above a low of 5.22% in August 2022 and more than double a record-low 2.68% in December 2020.

Pending home sales were mixed last month in the four major regions of the country. Sales in the Midwest declined 4.0% (+1.3% y/y) in July after easing 0.8% in June. Sales in the Northeast fell 0.6% both m/m and y/y, after holding steady in June. In the South, sales eased 0.1% (+1.8% y/y) following a 0.6% June decline, but sales in the West increased 3.7% (-1.9% y/y), reversing a 3.9% June drop.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- Decline adds to June weakness.
- Regional changes are mixed.


U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline in July

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 229,000 during the week of August 23, after rising to 234,000 in the week of August 16, revised from 235,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 230,000 initial claims for last week. The four-week moving average of initial claims increased to 228,500 from 226,000, revised from 226,250. It was the highest level since the second week of July.

In the week ended August 16, the total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries – also known as “continuing claims” – decreased by 7,000 to 1.954 million from 1.961 million in the prior week, revised down by 11,000 from 1.972 million. The four-week moving average rose to 1.956 million in the week ending August 16, the highest level in six weeks, and up from 1.952 million in the prior week, revised from 1.955 million.

In the week ending August 16, the insured rate of unemployment (the number of beneficiaries as a percent of covered employment) was 1.3% for the twelfth consecutive week.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ended August 9, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.75%), Rhode Island (2.58%), Massachusetts (2.18%), Minnesota (2.17%), California (2.11%), Washington (2.08%), District of Columbia (2.04%), and Puerto Rico (2.02%). The lowest were in South Dakota (0.28%), Florida (0.42%), and Alabama and North Carolina (both 0.47%). Rates in other notable states include Pennsylvania (1.92%), New York (1.73%), Illinois (1.72%), and Texas (1.24%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Initial claims declined in latest week after a surge in the prior week.
- Continuing claims declined.
- Insured unemployment rate holds steady.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Declined in Latest Week