Tom Moeller

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070213e.jpg" width="353">
Unleaded gasoline prices at the pump rose for the second straight week and the nickel increase to an average $2.24 per gallon was to the highest level in a month.
Colder temperatures have lent strength both to crude oil prices which rose to $59.00 per barrel yesterday and to natural gas prices which rose yesterday to $8.25 mmbtu (5.9 y/y).
The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is available <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html">here</a>.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070213f.jpg" width="353">
The Daily and Policy-relevant Liquidity Effects from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2007/2007-001.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">Weekly Energy Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">02/12/07</th>
<th scope="col">02/05/07</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">US Retail Gasoline Price, Regular</td>
<td>$2.24</td>
<td>$2.19</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>$2.57</td>
<td>$2.27</td>
<td>$1.85</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

Unleaded gasoline prices at the pump rose for the second straight week and the nickel increase to an average $2.24 per gallon was to the highest level in a month. Colder temperatures have lent strength both to crude oil prices which [...]

Gasoline Prices Rose Again

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

London

Singapore

Tokyo

New York

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

250826N20.jpg

250826O20.jpg

The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence declined 1.3% (-7.8% y/y) to 97.4 in August after increasing 3.7%, revised from 2.1%, in July and falling an unrevised 3.3% in June. An August reading of 96.5 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The index remained 13.7% below its November peak.

The Expectations Index declined 1.6% (-13.3% y/y) this month after rising 8.7% in July, revised from 6.4%, and falling 5.0% in June. The Present Situation index fell 1.2% (-2.5% y/y) after easing 0.2% in July, revised from down 1.1% and falling 1.8% in June.

The percentage of respondents assessing business conditions as “good” rose to 22.0% in August after holding steady at 20.5% in July. The index reached its highest level since October. The percentage assessing conditions as “bad” edged higher to 14.2% after falling to 13.6% in July. The appraisal of labor market conditions eased as 29.7% described “jobs plentiful” versus 29.9% in July. Jobs were viewed as “hard to get” by 20.0% of respondents this month, up from 18.9% in July. This measure has risen from 11.0% in January 2024. The labor market differential calculated by Haver Analytics (the percentage of consumers who think jobs are plentiful minus the percentage who believe that jobs are currently hard to get) fell to 9.7% compared to 11.0% in July and 12.2% in June. This measure remained below a high of 47.1% in March 2022. This series has a 60% correlation with the unemployment rate over the last ten years.

Expectations for business conditions improved this month as an increased 19.5% of respondents expect conditions to improve over the next six months, after 19.0% did so in July, while 21.9% expect them to worsen, after falling to 22.7% in July. On employment, 17.9% expect the number of jobs to increase over the next six months versus 18.0% in July. The percentage expecting the number of jobs to decline in the next six months rose to 26.8% after falling to 25.1% in July. A lessened 18.3% of respondents expect income to increase in six months, down from 18.7% in July. That remained off a high of 20.7% in November and compares to 12.6% who expect income to decrease, up from 11.8% in July.

The expected rate of price inflation over the next twelve months rose to 6.2% in August after falling to 5.7% in July. These remain up from a low of 5.0% in November. Interest rates are expected to rise this year by an increased 54.0% of respondents, and this remained up from a 45.5% November 2024 low. The percentage of respondents expecting equity prices to increase over the next twelve months fell to 47.4%, but remained up from a low of 37.6% in April and the most since January, while the percentage expecting a decline in stock prices rose to 30.3% after declining to 28.1% in July.

The percentage of respondents planning to buy a home held steady at 5.7% this month after falling from 6.1% in June. Plans to purchase an automobile rose to 12.0% this month, up from a low of 10.6% in April.

The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver’s **CBDB** database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in **USECON**, and market expectations are in **AS1REPNA**.

250826P20.jpg

250826Q20.jpg

- Monthly decline is slight, level remains up sharply from April low.
- Expectations and present situation readings decline.
- Inflation expectations rise after falling for two months.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Weakens in August; Inflation Expectations Rise

Sandy Batten

250826V5.jpg

250826W5.jpg

Durable goods orders fell 2.8% m/m (+3.3% y/y) in July on top of a slightly downwardly revised 9.4% monthly decline in June (previous -9.3% m/m). A 4.0% m/m decline had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Once again, plummeting nondefense aircraft orders were the key factor behind the overall decline in July. Excluding nondefense aircraft orders, the remaining orders rose 0.2% m/m in July after a 0.3% m/m decline in June.

Orders excluding transportation increased by a solid 1.1% m/m (+3.8% y/y) in July following a 0.3% monthly gain in June. The July monthly increase matched the September 2024 gain as the largest in more than two years. Orders for nondefense aircraft plunged 32.7% m/m in July, on top of a 52.7% monthly decline in June. Apart from the plunge in aircraft orders, orders in other major groups posted solid increases. Orders for motor vehicles increased 0.3%, their third consecutive monthly gain. Orders for primary metals jumped 1.5% m/m, the largest monthly gain since April 2024. Fabricated metals orders rose 0.7% m/m after a 0.1% monthly decline in June. Machinery orders soared 1.8% m/m, the largest monthly increase since January. Orders for computers and electronic equipment increased 0.6% m/m. Orders for electrical equipment and appliances jumped 2.0% m/m, the largest increase since last December.

The capital spending data in this report augured a solid beginning for Q3 business spending on equipment. Shipments of core capital goods (nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft) are a reliable coincident indicator of business spending on equipment in the national accounts. They increased 0.7% m/m in July, the largest monthly gain since April 2023, and are up more than 4% annualized in July from the Q2 average. Moreover, core capital goods orders rebounded in July, jumping 1.1% m/m after a 0.6% monthly decline in June.

Total manufacturing shipments increased 0.8% m/m (+1.8% y/y) in July following a 0.6% monthly increase in June. Shipments of durable goods rose a solid 1.4% m/m (+3.6% y/y), the largest monthly gain since May 2023. Excluding shipments of transportation goods, remaining shipments increased 1.0% m/m in July, the largest monthly increase since January 2023. Gains were widespread across major sectors with each one reporting an increase in July. Transportation shipments rose 2.3% m/m, led by a 15.5% monthly jump in shipments of nondefense aircraft and parts. Shipments of computers rose 4.5% m/m, their first monthly gain in three months. Shipments of nondurable goods edged up 0.2% m/m (-0.1% y/y), their third consecutive monthly increase.

Unfilled durable goods orders were unchanged in July from June (+7.0% y/y). Inventories of all manufactured goods increased 0.3% m/m in July (+1.4% y/y), the largest monthly gain since last December. Inventories of durable goods rose 0.3% m/m (+1.8% y/y), their fifth consecutive monthly increase. Motor vehicle inventories jumped 0.8% m/m, their largest monthly increase since October 2023. Aircraft inventories slipped 0.2% m/m, their third consecutive monthly decline. Inventories of nondurable goods increased 0.2% m/m in July (+0.8% y/y), the same monthly gain as in June.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250826X5.jpg

250826Y5.jpg

- Durable goods orders fell 2.8% m/m in July on top of a 9.4% monthly drop in June.
- Once again, weak nondefense aircraft orders were the key factor; nondefense aircraft orders plunged 33% m/m in July on top of a 53% m/m decline in June.
- In contrast, orders excluding transportation rose a solid 1.1% m/m in July, their largest monthly gain since September 2024.
- Core capital goods orders rebounded, and shipments posted a solid gain.

U.S. Advance Durable Goods Orders Dragged Down Again by Aircraft in July

250826J0.jpg

250826K0.jpg

U.S. house prices weakened 0.2% (+2.6% y/y) during June after easing 0.1% in May, revised from down 0.2% and falling an unrevised 0.3% in April. The annual increase is well below its recent high of 7.2% in February 2024, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index.

House price changes were mixed across the nine Census divisions of the country. Prices fell 0.8% (+5.0% y/y) in New England and 0.1% (+4.6% y/y) in the East North Central region. Prices were down 1.1% (+0.1% y/y) in the South Atlantic region, 0.4% (+3.1% y/y) in the East South Central region and 0.3% (+1.5% y/y) in the Mountain regions. Prices also eased 0.1% (+0.7% y/y) in the Pacific region, off for the fifth straight month. House price increases were logged in the middle Atlantic region where they rose 1.1% (7.2% y/y). Prices also increased 0.3% (4.3% y/y) in the West North Central region and 0.2% (1.4% y/y) in the West South Central region.

The FHFA house price index is a weighted purchase-only index that measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An associated quarterly index includes refinancing the same kind of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included. The FHFA data are available in Haver’s USECON database.

250826L0.jpg

250826M0.jpg

- Prices edge lower for third straight month.
- Annual increase is near two-year low.
- Price changes are uneven amongst regions.

U.S. FHFA House Prices Continue to Decline in June

250826C2.jpg

250826D2.jpg

Retail gasoline prices for all grades, on average, rose to $3.27 per gallon (-4.7% y/y) last week after rising to $3.25 one week earlier. Prices have been moving sideways for two months, but remained above their low of $3.13 in the week of December 9. The recent high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. Their all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel held steady at $3.71 per gallon (+1.6% y/y) in the week of August 25 after falling from $3.75 in the second week of August. The latest diesel price stood well below a high of $4.63 in the week ending September 18, 2023 and a peak of $5.81 in the week ending June 20, 2022.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil eased to $63.23 per barrel (-15.0% y/y) in the week ended August 22 from $63.31 in the prior week. The drop left prices at the lowest level since the last week of May. Prices remained above a $59.04 low in the second week of May. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $64.80 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude of $67.82 per barrel (-14.8% y/y) in the week of August 22, compared to $67.17 in the prior week. Prices remained below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and below a peak of $127.40 in June 2022.

Natural gas prices fell to an average $2.85/mmbtu (+39.7% y/y) in the week ended August 22, after falling to an average $2.94/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices remained well above a low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024 but below their peak of $9.56 in the week of August 26, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $2.76 per mmbtu.

Gasoline demand declined 1.2% y/y in the four weeks endng August 15, following a 1.5% y/y decline in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products rose 3.3% y/y in the four weeks ending August 15, after a 2.9% y/y increase in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 4.1% y/y in the four weeks ending August 15, after a 4.2% y/y gain in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories rose 1.3% y/y in the week ending August 15 after a 1.8% y/y in the prior week. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 25.5% y/y in the week of August 15, after a 25.7% y/y fall in the prior week. Crude oil inventories rose 2.6% y/y in the week of August 15 after a 2.8% y/y rise in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories stood at 24.8 days in the week of August 15, versus 25.0 days in the prior week. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8, 2024. The supply of crude oil eased to 24.6 days in the week of August 15, and remained below a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline prices rise.
- Crude oil prices ease.
- Natural gas prices decline.

U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed in Latest Week