Global| May 26 2011French Households Still Feeling Poorly
Summary
The INSEE survey shows that the French household is not feeling very good about the economy. While the confidence metric did tick up it stands only in the bottom 7 percent of its range back to 1990. Over the past 12-months living [...]
The INSEE survey shows that the French household is not feeling very good about the economy. While the confidence metric
did tick up it stands only in the bottom 7 percent of its range back to 1990.
Over the past 12-months living standards were assessed so low (-67) that they stood in the bottom 13 percentile of their range. The next 12-month ahead reading (form April) has living standards in the bottom 7.9% of its range. Consumers’ expectations are still very guarded. Price action past and future is assessed as in the top 90th percentiles range or higher.
Households say it is a favorable time to save with those responses in the 80th percentile of their range but as to their ability to save their assessment drops to the bottom quartile of its range.
What we see in France is the same picture we get from consumers around the Zone with the exception of Germany. Consumers are just not feeling the love from the economic expansion that has not been vigorous enough. High energy prices are probably partly to blame and the troubles in the Euro-Area with debt are partly to blame. Also, across the zone there are various political issues that are dimensionally different across countries, in many cases linked to various aspects of the European ongoing debt problems.
Consumers simply are not the backbone of the expansion.
| INSEE Household Opinion Survey | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May-11 | Apr-11 | Mar-11 | 3Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | Percentile* | |
| HH Indicator | 84 | 83 | 83 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 7.1% |
| Living Standards | |||||||
| Past 12-Mo | -67 | -69 | -68 | -68 | -69 | -68 | 13.8% |
| Next 12-Mo | -49 | -55 | -52 | -52 | -51 | -49 | 7.9% |
| Unemploy:Next 12Mo | 31 | 39 | 38 | 36 | 41 | 48 | 42.7% |
| Prices | |||||||
| Past 12-Mo | 27 | 35 | 22 | 28 | 18 | 2 | 94.1% |
| Next 12-Mo (Apr) | #N/A | 0 | 8 | 4 | -6 | -17 | 96.8% |
| Savings | |||||||
| Favorable to Save | 28 | 29 | 23 | 27 | 25 | 23 | 81.0% |
| Ability to save 12Mos | -14 | -16 | -14 | -15 | -13 | -12 | 23.7% |
| *Over range Since May-90 | |||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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