Global| Nov 28 2007Existing Home Sales Down and So Goes Prices
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Another low was reached by existing home sales last month. The level of 4,970 (AR) about met expectations but was the lowest on record which extends back only to 1999. The tally of single family home sales, however, extends further [...]
Another low was reached by existing home sales last month. The level of 4,970 (AR) about met expectations but was the lowest on record which extends back only to 1999. The tally of single family home sales, however, extends further back. For October, sales of existing single family homes were unchanged from the September level, but it was the lowest since early 1998. The figures are reported by the National Association of Realtors at the time sales are closed.
Weakness in sales last month was led by a 4.4% decline in sales out West. The count of single family sales in the West also fell by 2.5% (-33.1% y/y) to the lowest level since late 1995. Sales in the Midwest also were lower by 1.7% though single family sales were unchanged m/m (-15.9% y/y). Total sales in the Northeast were unchanged m/m as single family sales rose 3.1% (-13.2% y/y), the first gain in three months. In the South sales were also unchanged m/m as were sales of singe family units (-19.8% y/y).
The median price of an existing single family home fell for the fourth straight month. The 1.2% decline pulled prices 5.1% lower than last October and the price of an existing single family home fell as well, down 1.4% m/m and 6.3% y/y.
The Economic Outlook and Central Bank Policy is today' speech by Charles I. Plosser, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and it is available here.
| October 2007 | Sept 2007 | Year Ago | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number | M/M% | ||||||
| Total Sales | 4,970 | -1.2% | 5,030 | 6,270 | 6,510 | 7,075 | 6,727 |
| Northeast | 900 | 0.0 | 900 | 1,030 | 1,088 | 1,169 | 1,113 |
| Midwest | 1,180 | -1.7 | 1,200 | 1,420 | 1,492 | 1,588 | 1,550 |
| South | 2,030 | 0.0 | 2,030 | 2,520 | 2,578 | 2,704 | 2,540 |
| West | 870 | -4.4 | 910 | 1,300 | 1,353 | 1,616 | 1,575 |
| Single-Family | 4,370 | 0.0 | 4,370 | 5,708 | 5,677 | 6,182 | 5,958 |
| Median Price, Total, $ | 207,800 | -1.2 | 210,400 | 218,900 | 222,000 | 218,217 | 193,233 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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