Global| Dec 03 2003Euro-Zone Services Continue Broad Expansion Through Q4
Summary
"The highest since . . . " is a phrase that applies to the service sector PMI or its main components for nearly every European country in November. For instance, the Euro-Zone-wide index, at 57.5, is the highest since October 2000. [...]
"The highest since . . . " is a phrase that applies to the service sector PMI or its main components for nearly every European country in November. For instance, the Euro-Zone-wide index, at 57.5, is the highest since October 2000. This diffusion index for service industries is based on a survey of purchasing managers by NTC Research in Henley-on- Thames, England, for Reuters Group Plc. The data, which begin in July 1998, are contained in Haver's PMI database. Indexes for Germany, Italy, Ireland and Spain all rose several points in November, while the total Euro-Zone index and those for the UK and Russia edged ahead modestly. The French PMI eased a bit, but it had jumped more than 4 points in October, so it is still strong. The small rise in the UK index made it "the highest since" June 1997.
The most notable development in November is the climb in the employment component for the Euro-Zone to 50.4, "the highest in" 18 months, i.e. May 2002, and the first indication of net employment gains, however tiny, since July 2002. A 2.9-point improvement in Germany was the main contributor, although that individual country index reached only 46.7, still well below the expansion/- contraction breakeven at 50.
We note with some interest the fairly recent compilation of a Purchasing Manager Survey for Russia. NTC Research also conducts this survey, and the results are distributed by the Moscow Narodny Bank. Only two years old, this survey indicates a rapidly expanding service sector in Russia, with the latest gains concentrated in new business and outstanding business components.
| Service Sector PMIs (50+ = Expansion) | Nov 2003 | Oct 2003 | Sept 2003 | Nov 2002 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro-Zone | 57.5 | 56.0 | 53.6 | 50.8 | 51.6 | 51.6 | 59.8 |
| Germany | 55.4 | 53.7 | 52.4 | 45.6 | 48.6 | 48.9 | 56.7 |
| France | 59.6 | 59.8 | 55.6 | 54.1 | 54.7 | 54.3 | 64.2 |
| United Kingdom | 59.6 | 59.1 | 58.7 | 54.9 | 54.4 | 51.4 | 57.5 |
| Russia | 65.1 | 64.6 | 61.9 | 58.4 | 58.1 | 61.2* | N.A. |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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