Global| Nov 19 2003Energy Prices Hold Back Canadian and French CPIs
Summary
As in the US CPI data reported yesterday, consumer prices in other countries were restrained last month by lower energy costs. Canada's All-Items index was flat on the month, seasonally adjusted, and up 1.6% on the year. This latter [...]
As in the US CPI data reported yesterday, consumer prices in other countries were restrained last month by lower energy costs. Canada's All-Items index was flat on the month, seasonally adjusted, and up 1.6% on the year. This latter is the smallest 12-month increase since June 2002. A retreat in the 12-month rise from 2.0% in September was entirely accounted for by energy. Excluding that sector, the 12-month rate was 1.9% in both September and October.
In France, the entire CPI was up 0.3% from September to October and 2.2% from October 2002. During the 12 months, energy prices actually fell 0.4%, so that the 12-month rate excluding energy is 2.4%. However, in October, the main mover in French inflation was tobacco, which surged 6.8%. Without that large increase, the CPI would have risen just 1.8%. In France, this 12-month CPI excluding tobacco has been under 2% since last April. So inflation for non-smokers is quite low.
As noted in our commentary on the US CPI yesterday, energy prices have continued to decline in November, pointing to another month of modest inflation, not only in the US but, as we see here, among other nations as well.
| 12-Month Percent Changes | Oct 2003 | Sep 2003 | Aug 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | ||||||
| CPI all items | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| CPI excl energy | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| France | ||||||
| CPI all items | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| CPI excl energy | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
More Economy in Brief
