Global| Nov 16 2009Empire State Factory Conditions Slip From October High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that its November Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions slipped to 23.51 during November. Nevertheless, that level still remained near the highest level since 2004. The [...]
The
Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that its November Empire
State Factory Index of General Business Conditions slipped to 23.51
during November. Nevertheless, that level still remained near the
highest level since 2004. The latest reading compares to sharply
negative levels this past winter and suggests positive growth in
factory sector activity. The latest level fell short of Consensus
expectations for a reading of 30.0.
The figure is a diffusion index. Since the series' inception in 2001, there has been a 75% correlation between its level and the three-month change in U.S. factory sector industrial production. Like the Philadelphia Fed Index of General Business Conditions, the Empire State Business Conditions Index reflects answers to independent survey questions; it is not a weighted combination of the components. The series dates back only to 2001.
The
new orders component fell to 16.66 from its October high. The shipments
index also fell as did the employment index to a slim 1.32 from its
highest level since 2007. In the history of the NY employment index,
there has been an 87% correlation between the employment index and the
three-month growth in overall U.S. factory sector employment as
reported by the Labor Department. The workweek index also fell m/m but
remained significantly higher than the February low.
The prices paid index eased to its lowest level since July and remained down sharply from all of last year. Since inception in 2001, there has been a 77% correlation between the index of prices paid and the three-month change in the core intermediate materials PPI.
The Empire
State index
of expected business conditions in six months rose during
November rose to its highest level since early-2004. The subseries for
new orders, employment, prices and capital expenditures each rose. The
inventory subseries rose sharply to it highest since early last year.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. For more on the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, including methodologies and the latest report, click here. The Empire State data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Today's speech by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke On the Outlook for the Economy and Policy can be found here here.
| Empire State Manufacturing Survey | November | October | November '08 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Business Conditions (diffusion index, %) | 23.51 | 34.57 | -24.93 | -10.10 | 17.23 | 20.24 |
| New Orders | 16.66 | 30.82 | -22.29 | -6.25 | 15.71 | 20.11 |
| Employment | 1.32 | 10.39 | -28.92 | -5.36 | 11.28 | 12.62 |
| Prices Paid | 10.53 | 19.48 | 20.48 | 46.99 | 35.64 | 41.88 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
