Global| Jul 09 2007Economy Watchers Index Edges Lower and Future Index Weakens
Summary
Economy watchers survey results are in the lower quarter or third of their respective five year ranges. The NTC Manufacturing survey is in the bottom one percentile of its range. Teikoku Results for Manufacturing are weakening, but [...]
Economy watchers survey results are in the lower quarter or third of their respective five year ranges. The NTC Manufacturing survey is in the bottom one percentile of its range. Teikoku Results for Manufacturing are weakening, but still stronger in relative terms, in the top third of their range
Japan is still having a hard time getting its economic traction. Its Economy Watchers Index fell in June and is further below 50; the future index fell below 50 for the first time in six months.
The NTC MFG index for Japan has been weak and sliding, as it has dropped for five months in a row. It was last weaker than its current value in June of 2003.
The Teikoku indices are weighted diffusion readings and readings for MFG are even weaker than for the NTC barometer in absolute levels; but relative to its own range the reading is higher than for NTC. Still the Teikoku indices show a rapid drop in the sector readings in recent months. In the past three months various sectors have dropped 10 percentile points to 15 percentile to 20 percentile points (retailing) in terms of relative standings. Cleary Japan’s economy is having some difficulties and we see that in the exchange rate.
| Raw readings of each survey | Percent of 5Yr range* | ||||||
| Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | Mar-07 | Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | |
| Diffusion | |||||||
| Economy Watchers | 46.0 | 46.8 | 49.7 | 50.8 | 25.7% | 44.4% | 59.8% |
| Employment | 51.2 | 50.7 | 57.1 | 56.3 | 27.5% | 35.6% | 63.1% |
| Future | 48.4 | 50.0 | 51.9 | 51.3 | 34.9% | 52.9% | 68.0% |
| NTC MFG | 50.4 | 51.4 | 52.3 | 52.5 | 0.9% | 30.2% | 41.4% |
| Econ Trends (Teikoku'/50 neutral/weighted diffusion) | |||||||
| MFG | 44.6 | 45.2 | 47.0 | 47.2 | 69.7% | 76.2% | 85.1% |
| Retail | 39.2 | 39.6 | 41.1 | 41.1 | 52.7% | 64.3% | 74.3% |
| Wholesale | 42.1 | 42.8 | 44.3 | 44.6 | 68.0% | 75.6% | 83.5% |
| Services | 48.6 | 49.1 | 50.3 | 49.9 | 83.0% | 88.4% | 93.6% |
| Construction | 36.8 | 37.7 | 38.4 | 38.7 | 77.5% | 84.4% | 89.2% |
| 100 is high; Zero is low | |||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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