Global| Dec 15 2006CPI Unchanged
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
In November, the consumer price index (CPI-U) remained unchanged following 0.5% declines during the prior two months. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% rise. Prices less food & energy also were unchanged after the weak 0.1% [...]
In November, the consumer price index (CPI-U) remained unchanged following 0.5% declines during the prior two months. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% rise.
Prices less food & energy also were unchanged after the weak 0.1% October increase. Core prices were last unchanged in June of 2005 and here too Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% increase.
Core goods prices fell 0.4%. The decline was the fourth in the last five months and was the largest since October 2003. New & used motor vehicle prices dropped 0.8% (-0.9% y/y), off for the third consecutive month, while apparel prices fell 0.3% (+0.2% y/y) for the second consecutive down month.
Household furnishings & operation prices added to the list where prices fell with a 0.2% decline (+0.9% y/y). Also in the act of decline were medical care commodity prices which fell 0.4% (+2.3% y/y) and tobacco prices which fell 0.3% (+1.6% y/y).
With a 0.2% increase, core services prices posted the weakest gain since this past August. Most of the weakness owed to a 1.9% (-0.2% y/y) decline in public transportation costs, the third consecutive monthly decline. Shelter prices rose 0.4% (4.2% y/y) as the rental equivalence measure of owners' primary residences rose 0.3% (4.3% y/y). Rents rose 0.4% (4.1% y/y) for the sixth consecutive month. Education costs rose a strong 0.5% (6.3% y/y) and medical care services prices increased 0.3% (4.0% y/y).
Energy prices fell 0.2% after two months of roughly 7.0% decline. Gasoline prices fell another 1.6% (-4.2% y/y) but have moved higher in December to an average $2.30 per gallon from $2.23 in November. Fuel oil prices last month rose 0.3% (-3.0% y/y) after two 6.1% m/m declines. Natural gas prices rose 4.7% (-19.9% y/y) but electricity prices fell 0.2% (+6.5% y/y) for the second consecutive month.
Food & beverage prices slipped 0.1%. Dairy product prices fell 0.6% (-1.6% y/y) but prices for meats, poultry, fish & eggs were unchanged (1.2% y/y).
The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases, fell 0.2 as did prices less food & energy prices.
| Consumer Price Index | November | October | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.0% | -0.5% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.1% | 0.5% | -0.9% | -2.0% |
| Services less Energy | 0.2% | 0.3% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% |
| Energy | -0.2% | -7.0% | -3.6% | 16.9% | 10.8% | 12.2% |
| Food & Beverages | -0.1% | 0.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.1% |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | -0.2% | -0.3% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.0% |
| Total less Food & Energy | -0.2% | 0.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
