Global| Feb 20 2002CPI Increase As Expected
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer prices rose as expected last month. It was the first increase in four months and historical data was revised to reflect new seasonal factors. Core inflation at 0.2% also was as expected. Higher energy prices led the increase [...]
Consumer prices rose as expected last month. It was the first increase in four months and historical data was revised to reflect new seasonal factors. Core inflation at 0.2% also was as expected.
Higher energy prices led the increase in the CPI. They rose for only the second time since last May. Gasoline prices ticked up 2.7% after falling 30.1% during the last seven months of 2001.
Core goods prices continued to decline led by lower prices for new vehicles, apparel and home furnishings. Tobacco prices rose slightly.
Services prices rose moderately reflecting a 0.3% gain in shelter and a 0.2% gain in public transportation prices but a 0.5% in medical care services and a 0.6% gain in education prices.
| Consumer Price Index | Jan '02 | Dec '01 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.2% | -0.1% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.8% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% |
| Services less Energy | 0.4% | 0.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.7% |
| Energy | 0.9% | -3.0% | -15.3% | 3.7% | 16.9% | 3.6% |
| Food & Beverages | 0.3% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% |
by Tom Moeller February 20, 2002
Chain store sales rose 2.0% in the second full week of February. The jump followed a 2.1% gain the prior week and raised sales so far in February 2.0% above January.
The recent improvement in sales is confirmed by figures from Redbook Instinet Research, which slightly lag the BTM-UBSW figures.
| BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100) | 2/16/02 | 02/09/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 414.7 | 406.6 | 5.2% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 6.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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