Global| Apr 20 2005CPI Boosted by Energy & Services
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer Prices (CPI-U) rose 0.6% in March versus Consensus expectations for a 0.5% rise.Prices less food & energy rose 0.4%, double expectations for a 0.2% increase. Energy prices doubled the prior month's increase with a 4.0% gain [...]
Consumer Prices (CPI-U) rose 0.6% in March versus Consensus expectations for a 0.5% rise.Prices less food & energy rose 0.4%, double expectations for a 0.2% increase.
Energy prices doubled the prior month's increase with a 4.0% gain fueled by a 7.9% (16.8% y/y) jump in gasoline prices. In April gasoline prices have moved higher to an average $2.25 per gallon versus $2.08 in March although in the latest week prices backed off the high of $2.28. Fuel oil prices rose 4.6% (28.2% y/y) but natural gas & electricity prices fell 0.3% (+6.4% y/y).
Services price inflation firmed further last month. Less energy, the 0.5% gain in March was the strongest since November 2001. Shelter prices doubled the prior month's increase with a 0.6% (3.0% y/y) rise and medical care services prices again popped 0.6% (5.0% y/y). Public transportation prices surged 1.3% (0.2% y/y) following three months of flat-to-down movement and school tuition firmed further with a 0.6% (6.4% y/y) rise.
Core goods price inflation again was tame owing to a 0.4% (+0.9%) decline in new vehicle prices, a 0.7% decline (NSA, -15.2% y/y) in computer prices, no change in furniture prices (0.3% y/y) and no change in medical care commodities (2.2% y/y). Apparel prices, however, firmed and rose 0.8% (0.0% y/y).
Food prices rose 0.2%s. Fruit & vegetable prices declined for the fourth straight month (+1.6% y/y) and meat, poultry & fish prices rose 0.2% (2.7% y/y).
The chained CPI which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases jumped 0.7%. Core chain prices rose 0.5%.
Has the Bond Market Forgotten Oil? from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Consumer Price Index | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.6% | 0.4% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.4% | 0.3% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | -0.9% | -2.0% | -1.1% |
| Services less Energy | 0.5% | 0.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% |
| Energy | 4.0% | 2.0% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 12.2% | -5.9% |
| Food | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.7% | 0.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
