Global| May 10 2019CPI Again Lifted by Higher Energy Prices; Core Prices Rise Negligibly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% (2.0% y/y) during April following a 0.4% March gain. A 0.4% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy improved 0.1% (2.1% y/y) for the third [...]
The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% (2.0% y/y) during April following a 0.4% March gain. A 0.4% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy improved 0.1% (2.1% y/y) for the third consecutive month. A 0.2% rise had been expected.
Higher energy prices continued to lead the overall CPI higher. Their 2.9% jump (1.7% y/y) followed a 3.5% March rise. The strength was again led by gasoline prices which rose 5.7% (3.1% y/y). Fuel oil costs also strengthened 1.3% (-0.9% y/y). Electricity prices held steady (0.6% y/y), but natural gas prices declined 0.8% (-1.9% y/y).
Food prices weakened 0.1% last month (+1.8% y/y) after a 0.3% rise. The decline was paced by a 3.2% drop in egg prices (-16.4% y/y). Fruit & vegetable prices fell 0.9% (+2.2 y/y). Nonalcoholic beverage prices also fell 0.9% (+2.2% y/y). Meat, poultry & fish prices were little changed both m/m and y/y, as the cost of fish & seafood fell sharply for a second straight month (+1.3% y/y). Dairy prices also were weak and posted a minimal 0.1% gain (0.3% y/y).
Service prices improved 0.3% (2.8% y/y), the same as in March. Shelter costs rose an accelerated 0.4% (3.4% y/y) as the cost of lodging away from home strengthened 1.6% (4.1% y/y). Rents of primary residences increased 0.4% (3.8% y/y) and the owners' equivalent rent of primary residences gained a steady 0.3% (3.4% y/y). Recreation services prices improved 0.2% (3.1% y/y) and medical care service prices rose 0.2% (2.3% y/y). Education & communication service costs increased 0.2% (1.5% y/y) as tuition costs likewise gained 0.2% (3.4% y/y). The cost of public transportation rose 0.3% (-1.2% y/y) following many months of decline.
Core goods prices fell 0.3% (-0.2% y/y), down for the third consecutive month. Education & communications goods prices fell 1.1% (-5.0% y/y), and apparel prices were off 0.8% (-3.0% y/y). Furniture & bedding prices declined 0.7% (+1.6% y/y) and recreation product prices fell 0.3% (-1.7% y/y). Sporting goods prices weakened 0.9% (+0.1% y/y). Offsetting these declines, medical care product prices surged 0.9% (0.2% y/y) and appliance prices rose 0.5% (3.3% y/y) following two months of decline. New vehicle prices gained 0.1% (1.2% y/y) but used car & truck prices fell 1.3% (+0.8% y/y).
Also released today were figures on real earnings. The increase in the CPI caused real average hourly earnings to fall 0.1% last month (+1.2% y/y) after a 0.3% decline during March.
The consumer price data can be found in Haver's USECON database with additional detail in CPIDATA. The Action Economics survey figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers (% chg) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -0.5 |
| Services less Energy | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| Food | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Energy | 2.9 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 7.5 | 7.9 | -6.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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