Global| Dec 23 2013Consumer Sentiment Rise Is To The Highest Level Since July
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The index of consumer sentiment from the Reuters/University of Michigan survey jumped to 82.5 for all of this month from 75.1 during November. That nearly recovered all of the decline since July and roughly matched expectations for an [...]
The index of consumer sentiment from the Reuters/University of Michigan survey jumped to 82.5 for all of this month from 75.1 during November. That nearly recovered all of the decline since July and roughly matched expectations for an uptick to 83.0. The December figure equaled the mid-month reading. During the last ten years there has been a 58% correlation between the level of sentiment and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.
The index of current economic conditions surged roughly ten points to 98.6 (13.3% y/y), the post-recession high. The index of consumer expectations showed a lesser recovery to 72.1 and remained below the October 2011 high.
These data are not seasonally adjusted and can be found in Haver's USECON and UMSCA databases.
| Reuters/University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec'12 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 82.5 | 75.1 | 73.2 | 72.9 | 76.5 | 67.3 | 71.8 |
| Current Economic Conditions | 98.6 | 88.0 | 89.9 | 87.0 | 85.6 | 79.1 | 80.9 |
| Consumer Expectations | 72.1 | 66.8 | 62.5 | 63.8 | 70.7 | 59.8 | 66.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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