Global| Jul 20 2005China GDP Strong at 9.5% Growth in Q2
Summary
China's GDP remained strong in Q2, gaining 9.5% in real terms over Q2 2004, a pick-up from the 9.4% rate in Q1. Analysts in one leading forecast survey had looked for a slowing to 9.2%. Manufacturing was a leading sector, as indicated [...]
China's GDP remained strong in Q2, gaining 9.5% in real terms over Q2 2004, a pick-up from the 9.4% rate in Q1. Analysts in one leading forecast survey had looked for a slowing to 9.2%.
Manufacturing was a leading sector, as indicated in the advance in "secondary industry" shown in the table below, which similarly picked up in the quarter, rather than slowing down. It is not quite as vigorous as in 2003, but otherwise, factory and mining activity is maintaining the strongest trend since 1996. Data through May on nominal value added by industry indicate that so-called "heavy" industry is expanding at better than 35%, year-on-year, and "light" industry around 22% in recent months.
Interestingly, by types of ownership, the fastest growing industrial firms are the "share-holding enterprises", while value added by collectives and "joint ventures" actually decreased. State-owned and foreign-owned industrial firms are also showing sustained strength. A threshold of sorts was crossed in March 2004 when the value added by share-holding industrial enterprises surpassed that of state-owned firms; with a single exception. that has remained true every month since, and in May, the stock companies' value added exceeded that of the state-owned firms by more than 22%.
Other economic sectors remain firm, but relatively less vigorous. Primary industry (mostly agriculture) is up 5.0% in Q2, more than the 4.6% in Q1, but noticeably below the 6.3% for all of 2004. Tertiary activity, that is, mostly services, grew 7.8% in Q2, basically the pace that has prevailed since 1995.
| China | Q2 2005 | Q1 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP, Bil RMN | 3610.3 | 3131.9 | 3421.9 | 2934.8 | 2926.3 |
| Real Growth, Yr/Yr | 9.5 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 8.3 |
| Secondary Industry, Bil RMN | 2131.7 | 1831.8 | 1809.7 | 1531.8 | 1324.5 |
| Real Growth, Yr/Yr | 11.2 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 12.7 | 9.8 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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