Global| Nov 30 2006Chicago Purchasing Managers Survey Down in November
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Purchasing Manager's Assn. reported that its November business barometer fell to 49.9. It was the first month the diffusion index of factory sector activity fell below the break even line of 50 since 2003. During the last [...]
The Chicago Purchasing Manager's Assn. reported that its November business barometer fell to 49.9. It was the first month the diffusion index of factory sector activity fell below the break even line of 50 since 2003.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the index and the three month change in US factory sector industrial production.
All of the component series weakened m/m with the employment index falling to 49.4 versus an average 54.2 last year and new orders fell to 52.0 versus a 2005 average of 64.4.
The prices paid index dropped to 60.2, its lowest level since since May of last year.During the last ten years there has been an 89% correlation between the level of the prices diffusion index and the three month change in the core PPI for intermediate good.
| Chicago PMI | November | October | Nov. '05 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago PMI Business Barometer Index | 49.9 | 53.5 | 60.8 | 60.4 | 62.8 | 54.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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