Global| Dec 30 2002Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Fell
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index of Business activity fell more than expected in December. Consensus estimates were for a reading of 53.0. The decline ran counter to the moderate improvement in the Philadelphia Fed and the [...]
The Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index of Business activity fell more than expected in December. Consensus estimates were for a reading of 53.0.
The decline ran counter to the moderate improvement in the Philadelphia Fed and the Empire State Surveys for December.
Over the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the Chicago PMI and the ISM Composite Index. That is higher than a 71% correlation between the Philadelphia Fed General Activity Index and the ISM Composite, to be released Thursday.
The indexes of new orders, inventories and production fell, but employment rose and order backlogs.
The prices paid index rose and recouped all of the November decline.
Visit the Chicago Purchasing Managers website at www.napm-chicago.org.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Barometer | 51.3 | 54.3 | 41.5 | 41.4 | 51.8 | 56.5 |
| Prices Paid | 62.1 | 57.2 | 47.0 | 50.5 | 65.6 | 57.6 |
by Tom Moeller December 30, 2002
Sales of existing single family homes fell more than expected last month. Sales in October were little revised.
Sales in November were up 6.9% versus last December. During the first eleven months of 2002 sales were up 5.3% versus 2001.
Home sales fell in each of the country's regions except the West where they were unchanged.
The median price of an existing home rose 1.3% to $161,400 (9.7% y/y).
The figures reflect closings of past home sales.
The average rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage fell slightly last month versus October to 6.07%. The decline this year in mortgage rates has combined with strong growth in disposable income to offset higher home prices and thus raise home affordability.
| Existing Home Sales (000, AR) | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Existing Single-Family | 5,560 | 5,760 | 5.9% | 5,291 | 5,159 | 5,193 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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