Global| Nov 30 2006Chicago Fed Survey of Factory Activity Down
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank's Midwest manufacturing index fell 0.4% last month and it was the third consecutive monthly decline. The three month growth rate in the index dropped to -6.5% (AR), its worst since 2003. During the [...]
The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank's Midwest manufacturing index fell 0.4% last month and it was the third consecutive monthly decline. The three month growth rate in the index dropped to -6.5% (AR), its worst since 2003.
During the last ten years there has been a 89% correlation between the y/y change in Chicago's Midwest Mfg. index and the change in US factory sector industrial production. The October Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index can be found here.
The auto sector index registered its fifth decline in the last six months while the steel index fell for the third consecutive month. The machinery index, however, reflected the firm capital goods sector and rose moderately (6.7% y/y).
Industrial Ecology: Environmental and Economic Boon from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston can be found here.
| Federal Reserve Surveys | October | September | Oct. '05 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fed Midwest Mfg. Index (2002 = 100) | 106.1 | 106.5 | 103.6 | 102.1 | 100.4 | 97.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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