Global| Dec 21 2015Chicago Fed National Activity Index Deteriorates
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Federal Reserve reported that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) during November fell to a three-month low of -0.30 from -0.17 in October, revised from -0.04. The 3-month moving average eased to -0.20, its weakest reading [...]
The Chicago Federal Reserve reported that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) during November fell to a three-month low of -0.30 from -0.17 in October, revised from -0.04. The 3-month moving average eased to -0.20, its weakest reading since March and indicated that economic growth was slightly below its long-term trend. During the last ten years, there has been a 77% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Movement in the four component series of the overall index was mixed last month. The Production & Income reading fell to -0.27, its lowest reading since January 2014. The Employment, Unemployment and Hours figure eased to 0.05 from 0.08. These two positive readings followed two negative postings. To the upside, the Sales, Orders & Inventories series improved minimally to -0.02 from -0.03, but still posted the third negative number in four. The Personal Consumption & Housing series increased to -0.06, but has been moving sideways since the spring. The Fed reported that 37 of the 85 component series made positive contributions to the total while 48 made negative contributions.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov'14 | 2014 | 2013 | 201 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Activity Index (percent) | -0.30 | -0.17 | -0.13 | 0.77 | 0.21 | -0.05 | -0.12 |
| 3-Month Moving Average | -0.20 | -0.18 | 0.04 | 0.42 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.06 | -0.11 | -0.07 | -0.06 | -0.11 | -0.15 | -0.21 |
| Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.05 | 0.08 | -0.04 | 0.28 | 0.18 | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| Production & Income | -0.27 | -0.11 | -0.19 | 0.48 | 0.11 | 0.02 | -0.00 |
| Sales, Orders & Inventories | -0.02 | -0.03 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.02 | -0.00 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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