Global| Jul 21 2009Chicago Fed Index Indicates That Economic Activity Improved Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank reported that its June National Activity Index rose further to the highest level since July of last year. The reading of -1.80 was up from May and both figures were higher than the series' low of -3.99 [...]
The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank reported that its June
National Activity Index rose further to the highest level since July of
last year. The reading of -1.80 was up from May and both figures were
higher than the series' low of -3.99 reached this past January. Since
1970 there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the index
and the q/q change in real GDP.
The three-month moving average of the index also improved to its highest level since August.
An index level at or below -0.70 typically has indicated negative U.S. economic growth. A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth of roughly 3%. The complete CFNAI report is available here.
The production and income components made the largest positive contributions to the JUnel CFNAI. Twenty-two of the index components had a positive influence while 63 made a negative contribution.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic
activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories:
production & income, the labor market, personal consumption
& housing, manufacturing & trade sales, and inventories
& orders.
In a separate survey, the Chicago Fed indicated that its Midwest manufacturing index fell during May to its lowest level since 1994. Indicators for the auto, steel, and machinery each fell. The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Today's testimony by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is available here.
| Chicago Fed | June | May | June '08 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | -1.80 | -2.30 | -0.98 | -1.76 | -0.35 | 0.05 |
| 3-Month Moving Average | -2.12 | -2.65 | -1.07 | -- | -- | -- |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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