Global| Sep 10 2002Chain Store Sales Up Modestly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Chain store sales rose 0.1% during the first week of September according to the BTM-UBSW survey. Sales during Labor Day week posted the second rise versus the prior period following three consecutive down weeks. Sales began the month [...]
Chain store sales rose 0.1% during the first week of September according to the BTM-UBSW survey. Sales during Labor Day week posted the second rise versus the prior period following three consecutive down weeks.
Sales began the month of September 0.1% below the August average. August sales fell 0.9% versus July.
During the last five years there has been a 56% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in chain store sales as reported by BTM-UBSW and the change in same store sales as reported by Redbook Instinet Research.
| BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100) | 9/07/02 | 8/31/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 411.2 | 410.7 | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 6.7% |
by Tom Moeller September 10, 2002
The trade weighted value of the US dollar recently has recouped some of the losses suffered early last week.
Nevertheless, the dollar's trade weighted value has been volatile in a range of plus or minus 1.5% since the lows set early in July. Since then, sentiment regarding near term Fed ease has waxed and waned.
Commodity prices also have meandered recently. Oil prices have fallen 13% from the daily highs set in June but very recently have moved sideways. Metals prices also are down versus June highs but lately have stabilized.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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